Nord Stream indicates that a small amount of gas has been transferred in order to test the system for leaks. Nord Stream also indicates that it is preparing to resume supplies by adjusting the pipeline pressure. Of course, it is worth remembering that gas will remain Russia's weapon in relation to European countries.
The German DAX rose sharply after the news that on Thursday Gazprom is to resume gas supplies to Germany via Nord Stream I. What do we know about the current situation and what questions should we ask ourselves?
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Open account Try demo Download mobile app Download mobile app- Two sources said Gazprom is to resume deliveries on Thursday, after completing two-week maintenance work
- Deliveries are expected to be less than the standard 160 million cubic meters per day
- Deliveries are expected to return to the levels seen on July 11, ie only 50-60 million cubic meters
- According to one source, the Kremlin has not yet made a decision on whether to resume gas supplies
- There are voices that the repair of the turbine in Canada was only a pretext and is not needed for the proper operation of the gas pipeline
- On the other hand, if the turbine is still needed, then the resumption of deliveries can only take place at the level of 50-60 million m3 and only in August, after the turbine is installed, deliveries can increase to standard levels.
- Europe must continue to find other available sources of gas and energy, while limiting gas consumption itself
- Smaller gas supplies from Russia will not be sufficient for Europe taking into account the winter period
- On July 14, Gazprom sent letters to 3 recipients indicating that the transfer was reduced by force majeure, which could suggest that supplies may be disrupted in the future (or may not even be resumed)
- UBS indicated that without Russian gas the profits of European companies could be reduced by up to 15%
- UBS expects an additional 20% drop on the Euro Stoxx 600 index and a drop in EURUSD below 90 cents
- 10-year German bond yield may return to 0%
- UBS points out that this is however the worst case and not the baseline scenario
NATGAS price pulled back from 50 SMA (green line) on Tuesday. Source: xStation5
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