In today's macroeconomic publication calendar, the key reports will be the CPI data for June from European countries and the PCE data from the USA for May.
In the first part of the day, investor attention will be focused on European markets, where inflation data will be released for countries such as France, Italy, Spain, and Poland. Analyst expectations for most publications indicate a further decline in the year-over-year dynamics and are in line with historical averages month-over-month.
In the second part of the day, investor attention will shift across the ocean, where we will see the PCE data for May and the University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment report. Expectations indicate that the PCE data will fall to 2.6% year-over-year for both the headline and core measures, compared to the previous month's levels of 2.7% and 2.8% year-over-year, respectively. However, the markets' reaction to the data may be limited due to the fact that this is the publication for May and the main inflation data for this period is already known. Meanwhile, the consensus for UoM consumer sentiment points to a continuing downward trend.
Detailed schedule of the day:
07:00 AM BST, United Kingdom - GDP data:
- GDP (Q1): actual 0.7% QoQ; forecast 0.6% QoQ; previous -0.3% QoQ;
- GDP (Q1): actual 0.3% YoY; forecast 0.2% YoY; previous -0.2% YoY;
07:45 AM BST, France - Inflation Data for May:
- French Consumer Spending: forecast 0.2% MoM; previous -0.8% MoM;
- French CPI: previous 2.3% YoY;
- French CPI: forecast 0.1% MoM; previous 0.0% MoM;
- French HICP: forecast 0.1% MoM; previous 0.1% MoM;
- French HICP: forecast 2.5% YoY; previous 2.6% YoY;
08:00 AM BST, Spain - Inflation Data for Jun:
- Spanish CPI: forecast 3.4% YoY; previous 3.6% YoY;
- Spanish CPI: forecast 0.2% MoM; previous 0.3% MoM;
- Spanish HICP: forecast 0.3% MoM; previous 0.2% MoM;
- Spanish HICP: forecast 3.4% YoY; previous 3.8% YoY;
- Core CPI: previous 3.0% YoY;
08:55 AM BST, Germany - Employment Data for Jun:
- German Unemployment: previous 2.762M;
- German Unemployment Change: forecast 14K; previous 25K;
- German Unemployment Rate: forecast 5.9%; previous 5.9%;
- German Unemployment n.s.a.: previous 2.723M;
01:30 PM BST, United States - Inflation Data for May:
- Core PCE Price Index: forecast 2.6% YoY; previous 2.8% YoY;
- Core PCE Price Index: forecast 0.1% MoM; previous 0.2% MoM;
- PCE Price index: forecast 2.6% YoY; previous 2.7% YoY;
- PCE price index: forecast 0.0% MoM; previous 0.3% MoM;
- Real Personal Consumption: previous -0.1% MoM;
- Personal Spending: forecast 0.3% MoM; previous 0.2% MoM;
- Personal Income: forecast 0.4% MoM; previous 0.3% MoM;
03:00 PM BST, United States - University of Michigan inflation report for Jun:
- Michigan Current Conditions: forecast 62.5; previous 69.6;
- Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations: forecast 3.3%; previous 3.3%;
- Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations: forecast 3.1%; previous 3.0%;
- Michigan Consumer Expectations: forecast 67.6; previous 68.8;
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment: forecast 65.6; previous 69.1;
05:00 PM BST, United States - FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
