The holiday season has been once again defined by the lower trading activity. As the festivities continue next week, many markets will remain closed from Tuesday up to the end of the week. Nevertheless, the final days of 2024, along with the first days of 2025, are often characterized by seasonal patterns on some instruments. Additionally, next week we will also learn December's PMI data for the manufacturing sector from most major world economies. For those reasons, it will be worth watching instruments like the US500, EURUSD, and Bitcoin.
US500
In the upcoming week, we will receive PMI and ISM manufacturing data from the US, as well as some smaller macroeconomic releases. A significant surprise in these publications compared to current expectations could lead to increased volatility in the main US stock market index. Moreover, an analysis of the index's behavior over the past 10 years shows that the final days of the year, along with the first few days of the new year, often exhibit considerable profit-taking. This typically occurs over the last two days of the year and the first three days of the new year. For these reasons, it will be worth monitoring the US500 throughout the week.
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The EURUSD exchange rate has broken below a two-year consolidation channel and remains in this range. In the coming week, we will receive PMI manufacturing data from the US and EU countries. Any surprises in these publications could lead to heightened volatility in this currency pair. Therefore, it will be worth watching the EURUSD pair.
Bitcoin
Following its first significant correction in a while, Bitcoin has dropped more than 15% from its highs. This was the first notable pullback since the announcement of the US election results. Additionally, over the past two years, the first weeks of the new year have been very strong for Bitcoin, consistently showing robust rebounds. On the other hand, a long-term analysis of seasonality suggests a mixed start to the year with a stronger February. Bitcoin has been consolidating at current levels for over 1.5 months. The coming week could be interesting in this context.
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