Tesla: Q4 earnings preview

• Tesla to report Q4 2021 earnings after session close

• Record deliveries in 2021, record sales expected

• 2022 deliveries forecast at 1.38 million

• Cybertruck and scaling-up production in focus

• Stock bounces off the $885.00 support zone

Tesla (TSLA.US) will report financial results for the final quarter of 2021 today after the close of the Wall Street session. As is usually the case for quarterly results from Tesla, delivery numbers were already disclosed to the public. The company delivered a record 308.6 thousand vehicles in the final calendar quarter of 2021. That was an increase of 71% YoY and Market expects As a result, full-year deliveries reached 936 thousand units, an increase of 87.4% compared to full-2020. 

As deliveries data was better than expected, investors expect similarly strong Q4 2021 earnings. Market expectations:

• Revenue: $16.64 billion vs $10.74 billion a year ago

• Net income: $2.64 billion vs $0.31 billion a year ago

• Adjusted EPS: $2.36 vs $0.17 a year ago

• CapEx: $1.73 billion vs $1.15 billion a year ago

• 2022 delivery estimate: 1.38 million

• 2022 CapEx forecast: $6.38 billion

Apart from headline results, investors will also look for management's commentary on future outlook. Scaling up of production at 2 new factories will be one of areas of focus as well as timeline for launch of the Cybertruck. Automotive companies around the world have been struggling with parts shortages after Covid pandemic disrupted supply chains. While Tesla has managed to increase production this year to record levels, it is uncertain whether it will manage to continue to increase it this year. Cybertruck production was expected to begin in late-2021 but has been delayed into late-2022 with Tesla saying it was to make changes to original features and functions. Investors will also look for any information on new, affordable $25,000-cars that were promised in 2020. However, Tesla vice-president said in October that company will focus on existing models during supply chain constraints and will not add new models to line-up as long as battery supply remains an issue.

Taking a look at the Tesla chart (TSLA.US) at the D1 interval, we can see that stock took a hit during the recent stock market sell-off. Share price dropped to the $885.00 area, where previous price reactions and the upward trendline can be found. Area was defended by bulls and a bullish candlestick pattern was painted in the zone (orange circle). A recovery move was launched yesterday and stock climbed back above $900.00 handle. The nearest resistance zone to watch can be found ranging between 38.2% retracement of the upward impulse launched in May 2021 and $1,000.00 handle.

Source: xStation5