Puma shares slump 22% at 10-year lows after disappointing guidance and dividend📉

Puma shares (PUM.DE) continue to decline today, reaching levels not seen since 2015. The company’s sales and forecasts indicate a challenging period ahead, during which it may face margin pressure.

For the second time in seven weeks, the company has disappointed investors with weaker-than-expected results. It now forecasts another year of slow growth, citing trade tariffs, currency volatility, and geopolitical tensions. Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) for 2025 are expected to range between €520 million and €600 million, falling short of the market consensus of €674 million.

Other apparel brands such as Adidas and Nike are also facing challenges, but Puma appears to be the weakest performer among them. Analysts are becoming increasingly pessimistic about Puma’s ability to enhance brand appeal and successfully promote key sneaker models set to launch this year. The company is experiencing weak sales in the Chinese market, while its U.S. sales may generate lower profits due to the potential impact of tariffs, which could likely raise Puma’s prices in the U.S. market.

Financial Results

• Total Sales: €2.29 billion, in line with the €2.29 billion forecast (higher footwear sales, lower apparel sales)
• EMEA Sales: €796.5 million vs. €759.4 million forecast
• Americas Sales: €986.3 million vs. €992 million forecast
• APAC Sales: €506.6 million vs. €536.8 million forecast
• Currency-Adjusted Sales Growth: +9.8% YoY vs. +9.87% forecast

Regional Year-over-Year Sales Growth:

• EMEA: +14.6% YoY vs. +12.1% forecast
• Americas: +6.5% YoY vs. +4.67% forecast
• APAC: +9.5% YoY vs. +13.8% forecast

Margins and Profitability:

• Gross Margin: 47.3% vs. 47.4% forecast
• EBIT: €109 million vs. €109 million forecast
• Dividend per Share: €0.61 vs. €0.76 forecast

Puma expects its sales to grow at a low- to mid-single-digit rate year-over-year.

In February 2025, the company launched the ‘NextLevel’ program, aiming for an 8.5% EBIT margin by 2027. Implementing this initiative will cost approximately €75 million this year, but the company expects to generate total cost savings of €100 million, ultimately leading to an additional profit of around €25 million.

Puma Shares (PUM.DE)

The stock is currently trading about 60% below the 200-session moving average (EMA200, red line), reaching levels last seen at the turn of 2015 and 2016.

Source: xStation5

With Forward PE close to 10 and current PE at 15, the valuation for the Puma seems to be close to neutral, given rising debt pile, sluggish sales and profitability prospects. Net margin is slightly positive, however if US tariffs will start, and sales in APAC market will slow down further, we cannot rule out the profitability pressure and negative net margin in 2025. The ROIC is constantly falling.
Source: XTB Research, Bloomberg Finance L.P.Source: XTB Research, Bloomberg Finance L.P.