Platinum (PLATINUM) is trading up more than 1.2% today and approaching $1,000 per ounce, after the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) recently made new forecasts for the platinum market, citing data from research firm Metals Focus. These forecasts show that the market deficit for the metal is growing and is likely to be twice as high as previously expected, rising to 1 million ounces, the largest deficit in a decade. Such a scenario would mark the second consecutive year of a market deficit. In 2023, the deficit was 731,000 ounces. This time, estimates are driven by a forecast of demand higher by as much as 530,000 ounces than expected.
- The market speculates that the strong demand may be due to growing interest in precious metals investments, with small investment bars gaining popularity in China. The public may view metals as a potential hedge for savings in the event of a difficult economic situation.
- WPIC's forecast is that ETFs will see significant net inflows this year, rather than net outflows as previously expected. Moreover, industrial demand (excluding the automotive sector, which has been revised slightly downward) is also likely to prove stronger.
- What's more, looking deeper into the report, the downward revised supply from recycling offset the expected higher supply from the mining sector. Currently, platinum is still trading around $1,000 per ounce. The price discount to gold therefore approximates $1,560. The commodity analysis office of Germany's Commerzbank has indicated that the fundamentals for the platinum market still suggest significant upside potential from current levels.
PLATINUM (D1, H1 interval)
Platinum prices are trading up nearly 1.2% today and have approached $1,000 per ounce, gaining nearly 10% over the course of several days. Sentiment around the metal is also improved by rising gold and silver prices. However, looking at the magnitude of previous price impulses (green squares), a potential correction from current levels should not be surprising - but with stronger market fundamentals, it may not prove to be deep. The EMA50 average (orange line) is close to forming a so-called 'golden cross' formation with the EMA200 exponential average, which would potentially indicate a possible stronger upward impulse.
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