The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its monthly oil market report, revising its production and demand forecasts for 2023 and 2024. Here are the key statements:
- Demand growth assessment for 2023 reduced by 90 kbd to 2.3 mbd
- Global demand forecast lowered by 400 kbd in Q4 2023 alone
- U.S. oil supply growth continues to exceed expectations, with supply exceeding 20 mbd
- Non-OPEC+ countries will be the main driver of oil production growth in 2024 at 1.2 mbd
- OPEC+ share will fall to 51% this year
- According to the IEA, OPEC+ cuts in Q1 2024 will not lead to a large price rebound. IEA points out that growth in non-OPEC+ supply and weakness in demand is preventing prices from rising as some countries want them to
- Improved GDP growth outlook in 2024 raises global demand growth for 2024 by 130 kbd to 1.1 mbd
Most of the comments from the IEA are negative, but this latest one looks quite positive. Nonetheless, the IEA still sees a balanced market next year and sees no prospects for a big increase in oil prices
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Open account Try demo Download mobile app Download mobile appWTI crude oil is back above $70/b today and has already tested nearly $71/b. The seasonality index shows a potential further recovery in the market.
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