Another hurricane in the U.S. could lead to a drop in gas production 💡
NATGAS prices rose 3% today, although later the increase was slightly reduced. The strong gains continue in the face of the risk of another hurricane in the US, which could limit gas production, which is now already slightly lower than last year. Estimates put production at 100.5 bcfd today, down nearly 1% YoY. In contrast, demand (excluding exports) is estimated at 71.7 bcfd, an increase of 10.7% YoY.
It is worth noting that gas experienced its first positive double-digit roll-off this year and subsequently failed to fully close the gap. Since the opening, the post-roll-off price increase is already more than 10%. The forward curve currently indicates that the price of the January contract could reach around $3.5/MMBTU. However, given the recent demand-supply developments, upward pressure on prices may be building up.
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The price of gas continues its strong rise after the September rollover. Last year, the same period after the rollover saw an increase of more than 20% before a correction in the second and third weeks of October. Source: xStation5
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