- U.S. indices closed yesterday's session slightly lower; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 lost around 0.4% against the backdrop of uncertainty gripping the markets ahead of the U.S. presidential election and unwinding some 'Trump Trades' during recent days. 24 hours before the election, Donald Trump's lead increased again, giving him a 55% to 44% advantage on the Kalshi prediction market
- The dollar is trading flat today, with the Eurodollar settling at 1.087 and the USDJPY trading up a modest 0.15%. Yields on 10-year bonds are currently around 2.9%
- The sentiments during the Asian session was upbeat. Japan's benchmark Nikkei is up nearly 1.4%, the Hang Seng Index is up nearly 1.5% today, and contracts on China's HK.cash and CHN.cash indices are gaining more than 2%, as investors hope that better data from the country's services sector is one of the first signs of 'real' stimulus packages thrown by Beijing to the faltering economy.
- China's Caixin services PMI data for October indicated 52 versus 50.5 forecast and 50.3 previously, expanding at quickest rate since July. Sentiment also improved after the Chinese top legislative body reviewed a measure aimed at reducing the financial load on local leaders. Hong Kong's S&P PMI indicated 52.5 versus 50 in September. The better-than-forecast readings pleased markets
- The Central Bank of Australia (RBA) kept rates at 4.35%, as expected. The AUDUSD pair is gaining nearly 0.3% today. The bank indicated that it expects a pro-inflationary effect resulting from stimulus efforts in China, while core inflation remains unchanged at elevated levels.
- According to the RBA's commentary, demand in the economy still exceeds supply, making it necessary for policy to be restrictive 'for some more time'; according to the bank, the decline in CPI inflation does not fully reflect the situation in the economy, and core inflation is too high
- Singapore retail sales, up 2% in October, against 1.8% forecast and 0.6% previously (month-on-month growth was 0.4% vs. 0.7% in September)
- After a successful session in Asia, European index futures also posted modest gains in the range of 0.2 - 0.3%. Switzerland's unemployment rate came in line with expectations at 2.6% in October; no change m/m.
- Hugo Boss Q3 operating profit slightly beat analysts expectations (1% increase in currency-adjusted group sales) amid 'persistently weak demand in China'; EBIT down 7% to 95 million euros vs 90 million exp. by analysts
- Axios reported that the United States and Saudi Arabia are discussing a possible regional security agreement, which would not include a broader deal with Israel. Iran has agreed to increase oil production by 250,000 barrels per day
- WSJ reports that new restrictions have caused chipmakers like Applied Materials, and Lam Research to be forced to remove Chinese suppliers and investors
- Volatility in agricultural markets is currently very low, with oil futures losing slightly, after gains in recent days driven by the Middle East geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ decision to delay restoring production. Bitcoin is back in the neighborhood of $69,000 and is gaining just over 1% today.
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