MACRO: US retail sales rise unexpectedly in September

The Commerce Department released a report on Friday showing an unexpected increase in US retail sales in the month of September. Retail sales rose 0.7 % mom last month, following an upwardly revised 0.9% surge in August, beating analysts' estimates of a 0.2% fall, in another sign of resilience from consumers despite supply constraints which affect vehicles and computers among other goods. Demand for goods has surged as widespread vaccinations have allowed businesses to reopen from the Covid-19 shutdowns, and total sales jumped 13.9% compared to September 2020, according to the report. Excluding auto sales, however, retail sales advanced by a slightly stronger 0.8% in September after spiking by an upwardly revised 2.0% in August and above market expectations of 0.5% rise.

US retail sales climbed by 0.7% in September after jumping by an upwardly revised 0.9% in August. Source: Bloomberg via ZeroHedge 

However, the supply chain issues continue to be felt in the data, and the New York Federal Reserve's Empire manufacturing index fell 14.5 points to 19.8 this month, with record high in delivery times, and prices near record highs. This raised concerns that supply constraints could disrupt the holiday shopping season amid continued shortages of goods and push inflation higher. This should help cement expectations for a taper announcement from the Federal Reserve during its November meeting.