- The economy has made considerable progress toward dual goals. Inflation has eased substantially but remains too high
- Inflation is still too high and further progress is not assured.
- The Fed is highly attentive to inflation risks
- We do not expect it will be appropriate to cut rates until we have greater confidence inflation is going back to 2%.
- It is likely that gaining greater confidence will take longer than previously expected.
- So far this year inflation readings have not given us that greater confidence.
- Slowing the pace of QT does not mean our balance sheet will shrink less than it would otherwise.
- The decision to slow runoff will reduce possibility of money market stress.
- We believe over time policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation back down to 2%. It is unlikely next policy move will be a hike.
US100 is strongly rebounding after comments that hikes are rather not possible.
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