Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Thomas Barkin commented today on the economy, risks and prospects for US monetary policy. Overall, the commentary indicates considerable uncertainty, and Barkin didn't rule out even a rate hike at a time when the market is pricing in as much as 150 bps of cuts by the end of 2024:
- Risks to a soft landing include the lagged impact of high interest rates on credit, external shocks, anchoring services inflation at high levels and strong demand
- There is potential for additional rate hikes. This remains an open question
- A drop in long-term interest rates could stimulate demand for homes
- A case for a soft landing can be seen in the data, but it is not a foregone conclusion
- The central bank is making real progress on inflation while the economy remains healthy
- Six-month core inflation for personal consumption expenditures is now slightly below the 2% target
- Conviction about inflation and the economy will determine the future path of interest rates.in the US
USDIDX interval D1
A dollar index gains today, although the gains have more or less stopped at the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level, at 102.2. In a pro-growth scenario, the key resistance is the SMA200, which runs more or less at 103 points, and the market may want to test it.
Source: xStation5
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