Thomas Barkin from US Federal Reserve commented today US economy, tariffs and Trump policies. Here is the breakdown:
- I would never take any policy move off the table, but hikes would require an economy overheating. No evidence of overheating at this point.
- I still lean towards cuts this year. I see no sign of the US economy overheating.
- I expect 12 month inflation numbers to come down nicely. Baseline data has been favorable.
- I see strong consumer spending and lower investment in 2025.
- Many Trump policies are adding to uncertainty in the economy. It's difficult to know the impact of tariffs.
- The bias is to see what happens and react to it.
US Postal Service will continue accepting China and Hong Kong packages on February 5th. USPS commented also that '(,..) We are working with US customs on China tariff collection.'
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