Today, the EIA released a report titled "Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO)" providing the latest forecasts and information on global and U.S. energy sectors. The report indicates a slight increase in global oil demand, going up by 50k barrels per day (bpd) this year. However, it predicts a dip in 2022, with demand being 250k bpd less than what it was this year. Looking further ahead, the demand is expected to rebound, witnessing an augmentation of 1.81 million bpd in 2023 and further growth of 1.36 million bpd in 2024.
EIA Highlights
Global Oil Production
- Saudi Arabia extended its voluntary oil production cut of 1 million barrels per day through the end of 2023, initially set to end in September 2023.
- Anticipated decrease in global oil inventories by 0.2 million barrels per day in Q4 2023 due to the extension of Saudi Arabia's production cut.
Crude Oil Prices
- Brent crude oil price projected to average at $93 per barrel in Q4 2023, up from $86 per barrel in August 2023.
- Forecast indicates a reduction in the average price to $87 per barrel in the second half of 2024, with an expected increase in global oil inventories during that time.
Source: EIA
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- Downward adjustment in U.S. gasoline consumption predictions following U.S. Census Bureau's updated population data showing a decrease in the working-age population and an increase in the retirement-age group, leading to reduced vehicle usage.
- Gasoline consumption estimates: 8.9 million barrels per day in 2023 and 8.7 million barrels per day in 2024, representing a 0.2 million barrels per day reduction from August STEO 2024 forecast.
U.S. Natural Gas Consumption
- U.S. to witness a record natural gas consumption in September with an average of 80.5 billion cubic feet per day, marking a 5% increase compared to September of the previous year.
- The surge is attributed to high electricity generation necessitated by increased air-conditioning usage during the summer and a decrease in power generation from coal-fired plants.
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