- European index contracts point to higher open before scheduled May services PMI readings
- Markets await important ADP and ISM services report from the US
- Attention turned to the BoC, which is likely to cut rates by 25 bps today
Today, investors will receive a number of important data from the Eurozone, which will open with releases from French industry, where a slight recovery is expected. Attention will then focus on Eurozone and German PMIs. Especially in the case of Europe's largest economy, the market expects a visible improvement. Moving overseas, yesterday's JOLTS from the U.S. indicated that vacancies in the U.S. economy were at their lowest levels since 2021. In today's ADP data, showing the change in employment among private, U.S. businesses, the market will expect a confirmation of the trend, suggesting a cooling labor market, putting more 'dovish pressure' on Federal Reserve policy.
Attention, however, will mostly focus on 3 PM BST, when the market will learn the ISM data from the US service sector; it is in services that we see anchored, higher inflation, and it is a sector from which it is difficult to combat, given the observed growth in real wages. The market will focus not only on the headline reading, but on the price sub-index, and it seems that it would be particularly undesirable for markets if the price sub-index were decidedly stronger, against the backdrop of other ISM readings of orders, labour or business activity. The Bank of Canada is likely to cut rates by 25 bps today, but the market will be closely watching the press conference, scheduled for 3:30 PM BST to find out what scale of easing to expect this year.
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Open account Try demo Download mobile app Download mobile app7:45 AM BST - France, industrial production (April). Expectations: 0.3% vs. Previously: -0.3%
8:00 AM BST - Czech Republic, retail sales ex-cars (April). Expectations: 5,5%. Previously: 6,1%
8:55 AM BST - Germany, services PMI. Expectations: 53.9 Previously: 53,2
9 AM BST - Eurozone, services PMI. Expectations: 53.3 Previously: 53,3
9:30 AM BST - United Kingdom, services PMI. Expectations: 52.9 Previously: 55
10 AM BST - Eurozone, PPI inflation. Expectations: -5.3% Previously: -7.8%
1:15 PM BST - US, ADP report. Expectations: 175k Previously: 192k
2 PM BST, Canada, BoC decision. Expectations: 4.75% Previously: 5%
3 PM BST, US ISM services. Expectations: 50.8 Previously: 49,4
- Business activity. Expectations: 53 Previously: 50.9
- Prices paid: 59 vs 59.2 previously
- Employment: 47.2 vs 45.9 previously
- New orders: 53.2 vs 52.2 previously
3:30 PM BST U.S., change in oil inventories: -1.9 million barrels vs -4.16 million previously
- Change in gasoline inventories: 2.6 million vs. 2 million previously
- Change in distillate inventories: 3 million vs 2.5 million previously
3:30 PM BST, Canada, BoC press conference
Speeches by central bankers
- 3:30 PM BST - Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada
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