- Index contracts in Europe suggest mixed opening on the Old Continent
- JOLTS and ISM data will shed more light on the health of the US economy
- Investors await FOMC minutes
Today's macro calendar for Europe is very light, and the markets' attention will be focused on the United States today. The recent mostly weak streak of readings from the U.S. economy will be 'continued' today with manufacturing ISM reading and U.S. new job openings (JOLTS) data. Both of these readings will be released simultaneously, at 3 PM GMT, and could lead to higher volatility in the US dollar and stock markets. Yesterday, following the weaker release of the final manufacturing PMIs, Wall Street showed that slowly weaker macro data no longer 'pleases investors' and could be a warning signal of the postponed effects of Fed policy tightening.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting will perhaps shed more light on what the 'appetite' of Fed members for rate cuts is, and whether optimism for policy easing on the other side of the Atlantic is fully justified. Currently, markets are expecting first-rate cut in March, but expectations suggest a trace chance at the next meeting, on January 31, where investors are pricing it in with a near 11% probability. A continuation of weak readings could lead to an increase in those expectations, given that real interest rates in the US are still well above inflation rates, and the Fed is looking to achieve a soft landing. However, indices may not like weak data, putting a question mark over the economy's expansion, in the new year.
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Open account Try demo Download mobile app Download mobile app8:30 AM GMT - Switzerland, Manufacturing PMI. Expectations 43 vs. 42.1 previously
8:55 AM GMT - Germany, unemployment rate. Expectations: 5.9% vs. 5.9% previously (with employment expected to change by 20k vs. 22k previously)
3 PM GMT-US, JOLTS report. Expected: 8.821 million vs. 8.733 million previously
3 PM GMT - USA, ISM manufacturing for December. Expected: 47.1 vs. 46.7 previously
- Price Paid Index: 49.5 vs 49.9 previously
- New orders index: 49.1 vs 48.3 previously
- Employment index; 46.5 vs 45.8 previously
7 PM GMT - US, FOMC minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting
Central bankers' speeches
- 1:30 GMT - Fed Barkin
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