Economic calendar: Soft indices to start the week

Summary:

• Turkish inflation is expected to have accelerated in July
• Final services PMI from European countries and the first readings from Spain, Italy, the UK
• Non-manufacturing ISM from the US to be released this afternoon

8:00 am BST - Turkish inflation for July: The Turkish lira has been under selling pressure of late due to a tremendous rate cut delivered by a new CBRT governor (it has stopped strengthening since then). Currently, a risk-off environment will not help this currency recover for sure unless inflation surprises to the downside today. The consensus for today’s reading points to 16.9% YoY compared to 15.7% YoY in June. 

8:15/8:45/8:50/8:55/9:00 am BST - Services PMIs from Spain/Italy/France (final)/Germany (final)/ EMU (final) for July: Taking into account that indices from the largest European economies will be final it is worth paying more attention to readings from Italy and Spain. Expectations suggest no change in case of Spain, and modest increase to 50.6 in Italy. 

9:30 am BST - Services PMI from the UK for July: The consensus is calling for a tiny bounce to 50.3 from 50.2. Combining with the indices from construction and manufacturing the composite PMI index is forecast to have ticked up to 49.8 from 49.7. 

3:00 pm BST - Non-manufacturing ISM from the US: The Bloomberg median estimate suggests the index has moved up to 55.5 from 55.1 last month. However, some components could be even more important to draw constructive conclusions with regard to the US economy (keep an eye on new export orders and prices in particular). Let us note that the final PMI for services will be out 15 minutes earlier. 

Central bankers’ speeches: 

• 6:30 pm BST - Fed’s Brainard