- Futures point to lower opening of European session
- Markets await SNB and Bank of England
- One step closer to CBRT radical move
- Market counts on strong US claims data
- Powell to begin second day of testify in US Congress
The main events of today's session will, of course, be the decisions of the two, large European central banks SNB and Bank of England. In both cases, the market expects further tightening with the UK in particular having the potential for a surprise decision of a 50bp hike versus the 25bp estimated. The BoE is likely to raise rates by 50bp at one of its next two meetings (today or in August) with recent readings (especially yesterday inflation data) from the UK economy may embolden bankers to make a hawkish move 'sooner rather than later'. Also closely watched by investors will be the decision of the Bank of Turkey (CBRT), where rates are likely to rise dramatically driving volatility on the lira. For investors in Poland, on the other hand, the key reading appears to be retail sales, where the market forecast optimistically counts on a 4% y/y increase vs. 3.4% previously. The BIEC indicator and construction production data will shed more light on the momentum of the Polish economy.
Key for stock market sentiment today may be claims readings from the US, where the market expects a stronger-than-previous data reading and continues to bet on tremendous labor market strength. Also important will be Powell's second day of testimony in Congress. Although so far the Fed chief has not surprised with the tone of the message (except perhaps for the insertion about cryptocurrencies). today may bring more volatility as Powell will answer questions. Markets will also learn about secondary market home sales readings, where investors are pricing in a slight m/m decline (4.25 million vs. 4.28 million previously) and the Kansas City Fed's regional industrial index where the market expects a further decline to -5 (-1 previously)
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Open account Try demo Download mobile app Download mobile app10:30 BST - Switzerland, SNB interest rate decision,
The market expects a 25-bp hike from 1.5% to 1.75%
14:00 BST - UK, Bank of England interest rate decision
Market expects 25bp hike from 4.5% to 4.75%
14:00 BST - Turkey, CBRT weekly lending rates
The market expects a hike of 8.5% to 20%
15:30 BST - US Calims data
New claims. Expectations: 259 thousand Previously: 260k.
Continued claims. Expectations: 1785 thousand Previously: 1775 thousand
17:30 BST - Gas inventories by EIA: Expected: 90 bcf Previously: 84 bcf
18:00 BST - Change in oil inventories Expected: -0.4 bbl Previously: 7.92 bbl
Speeches by central bankers
- 11:00 BST - SNB Jordan, Fed Waller
- 12:15 BST - ECB Panetta
- 15:05 BST - Bundesbank Nagel
- 16:55 BST - Fed Bowman
- 17:00 BST - Fed Powell
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