Economic calendar: Services ISM/PMI and NZ jobs report

Summary:

• Soft services indices from the UK and the US
• Employment report from New Zealand for Q3
• Some central bankers on the agenda

9:30 am GMT - UK, Services PMI for October. The British pound has gained a lot in recent weeks thanks to positive newsflow regarding Brexit. As it turned out, we are still a long way off from the end of Brexit saga and instead of get Brexit done in November, we are heading for snap elections in December. Having in mind that the pound is currently trading at quite demanding levels today’s reading could affect it noticeably. The consensus calls for a tiny acceleration to 49.7 from 49.5.

10:00 am GMT - Eurozone, PPI inflation for September. This is rarely any market mover for the euro, but it can tell us a bit in terms of building price pressures in the eurozone economy, that is why PPI seems to be worth looking at too. The Bloomberg median estimate suggests a 1.2% YoY decline. 

1:30 pm GMT - US, trade data for September. Talking about trade data comes down to the never-ending thread regarding a US-China trade spat. Moreover, this seems to be yet more important given that we are slowly nearing the time when a trade agreement is to be signed. Keep in mind that a wider deficit with China could be seen as a reason for Trump to be reluctant to more generous concessions. 

3:00 pm GMT - US, ISM non-manufacturing for October. Manufacturing ISM released last Friday brought an interesting picture of the US economy. Namely, it showed some improvements in employment and new orders (a huge jump in new exports orders), and a notable deceleration in case of prices paid. That’s a mixture favouring the current stance of the Fed to wait and see. The index for services is expected to have risen to 53.5 from 52.6.

9:40 pm GMT - API report on oil inventories. As usual, this data could set expectations ahead of governmental data on Wednesday. We think that oil prices might be somewhat nervous if today’s data shows another (in a row) build-up.

9:45 pm GMT - Employment report from New Zealand. Given the fact that employment data from New Zealand is released quarterly, it tends to be a larger market mover for the kiwi and other related assets. The consensus signals a 0.2% QoQ change in employment, subtly higher labor participation and a bit slower than previously pace of wage growth. 

Central bankers’ speeches

• 9:00 am GMT - ECB’s Villeroy

• 9:00 am GMT - ECB’s Muller

• 1:00 pm GMT - Fed’s Barkin

• 2:45 pm GMT - Riksbank’s Ingves

• 3:30 pm GMT - ECB’s Visco

• 5:40 pm GMT - Fed’s Kaplan

Major companies reporting earnings today

• Newmont Goldcorp (NEM.US)

• Emerson Electric (EMR.US)

• Becton Dickinson (BDX.US)