Today's key event will be the release of NFP labor market data from the U.S. After the FOMC decision on Wednesday, we can see that the labor market is gaining increasing importance in the Fed's decision-making process, making today's data release even more crucial. The labor market is cooling rapidly, and if the data turns out to be much worse than expected, it could determine a faster pace of interest rate cuts in the U.S.
Currently, expectations indicate an increase in the number of newly employed persons to 176k in July compared to 206k in the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%, and wage growth is expected to decline to 3.7% year-over-year. Estimated data suggest a satisfactory direction of changes, namely a cooling labor market with a simultaneous decrease in wage inflation pressure.
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Open account Try demo Download mobile app Download mobile appIn addition to macroeconomic data, the quarterly earnings season on Wall Street is also ongoing. Today, investors will receive reports from ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Monster Beverage. The companies are expected to release their results before the U.S. cash session opens.
Detailed calendar for the day:
07:30 AM BST, Switzerland - Inflation Data for July:
- CPI: forecast -0.2% MoM; previous 0.0% MoM;
- CPI: forecast 1.3% YoY; previous 1.3% YoY;
08:00 AM BST, Spain - Employment Data for July:
- Spanish Unemployment Change: forecast -17.4K; previous -46.8K;
08:30 AM BST, Switzerland - PMI Data for July:
- procure.ch PMI: forecast 44.4; previous 43.9;
12:15 PM BST, United Kingdom - BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks
01:30 PM BST, United States - Employment Data for July:
- Nonfarm Payrolls: forecast 176K; previous 206K;
- Private Nonfarm Payrolls: forecast 148K; previous 136K;
- Participation Rate: previous 62.6%;
- Unemployment Rate: forecast 4.1%; previous 4.1%;
- Average Hourly Earnings: forecast 3.7% YoY; previous 3.9% YoY;
03:00 PM BST, United States - Durable Goods for June:
- Durables Excluding Defense: previous -7.0% MoM;
- Durables Excluding Transport: previous 0.5% MoM;
- Factory Orders: forecast -2.7% MoM; previous -0.5% MoM;
03:00 PM BST, United States - Total Vehicle Sales for July:
- previous 15.30M;
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