The most important event this week is undoubtedly the release of the US CPI report, which will be published today at 01:30 PM BST. In addition to this, it will be worth keeping an eye on further comments from FOMC members, including Kashkari, Schmid, and Logan.
Analysts' expectations suggest that inflation in the US in October may have risen by 2.6% year-over-year compared to the 2.4% reading in September. Meanwhile, core inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 3.3% year-over-year. At the last press conference following the Fed's decision, Jerome Powell stated that inflation is steadily approaching the 2% target, although core inflation remains somewhat elevated. Inflation expectations were described as "well-anchored." According to Powell, the latest inflation reading was not exceptionally bad but slightly exceeded forecasts, providing a basis for greater caution.
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Open account Try demo Download mobile app Download mobile appIn this context, today's data for October will be revealed. It seems that for the Fed to consider a rate cut in December, we should see readings at least in line with expectations and confirmation of a continued disinflationary trend. Any negative surprises will reduce the chances of a 25 basis point cut in December.
Detailed daily calendar:
09:45 AM GMT, United Kingdom - BoE MPC Member Mann Speaks
10:30 AM GMT, Germany - German 10-Year Bund Auction:
- previous 2.310%;
01:30 PM GMT, United States - FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
01:30 PM GMT, United States - Inflation Data for October:
- Core CPI: forecast 3.3% YoY; previous 3.3% YoY;
- Core CPI: forecast 0.3% MoM; previous 0.3% MoM;
- CPI: forecast 2.6% YoY; previous 2.4% YoY;
- CPI: forecast 0.2% MoM; previous 0.2% MoM;
02:30 PM GMT, United States - FOMC Member Williams Speaks
09:30 PM GMT, United States - EIA Data:
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: previous 3.132M;
12:30 AM GMT, Australia - Employment Data for October:
- Employment Change: forecast 25.2K; previous 64.1K;
- Full Employment Change: previous 51.6K;
- Participation Rate: forecast 67.2%; previous 67.2%;
- Unemployment Rate: forecast 4.1%; previous 4.1%;
12:30 AM GMT, Australia - RBA Assistant Governor Jones Speaks
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