- Important macro data in China turned out better than expected
- Markets await industrial production readings, Michigan index and inflation expectations from the US
- Indexes in Europe open higher after a strong session in Asia and yesterday's gains on Wall Street
Today's calendar is dominated by readings from the United States as there are no significant readings scheduled aside from the final inflation data from Italy and France and the Eurozone trade balance. Looking at US data, on the other hand, markets will pay particular attention to readings from manufacturing, which will be kicked off by the NY Fed's regional benchmark and the Michigan index, which will complement readings on inflation expectations.
Weaker data could add to the pressure on the Fed, which will decide on interest rates next week. In the baseline scenario, markets expect one more hike in the U.S. but are pricing it with a much higher probability in November than in September. It seems that strong data readings should please the markets and confirm the strength of the economy (and thus also the potential performance of companies) - despite the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle. Inflation in the U.S. (although there is risk on the oil side) has definitely declined and appears less stubborn than in the Eurozone.
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03:00 BST - Macro readings from China
- Unemployment rate: 5.2% vs. 5.3% forecast and 5.3% previously
- Urban investments: 3.2% vs. 3.3% forecast and 3.4% previously
- Industrial production: 4.5% vs. 3.9% forecast and 3.7% previously
- Retail sales: 4.6% vs 3% forecast vs 2.5% previously
07:45 BST, France - CPI inflation
- CPI y/y: 4.8% vs 4.8% forecast vs 4.8% previously
- CPI m/m: 1% forecast vs 1% previous
- HICP y/y: 5.7% forecasts vs 5.7% previous
- HICP m/m: 1.1% forecasts vs 1.1% previously
09:00 BST, Italy - CPI inflation
- CPI y/y: 5.5% previously
- CPI m/m: 0.4% previously
- HICP y/y: 5.5% forecast vs 5.5% previous
- HICP m/m: 0.2% previously
13:30 BST, NY Fed regional index. Forecast: -10 vs -19 previously
- US import prices. Forecast: 0.3% vs 0.4% previously
- US export prices. Forecast: 0.4% vs 0.7% previously
14:15 BST, US industrial production m/m. Forecast: 0.1% vs 1% previously (-0.23% y/y previously)
- Manufacturing Output. Forecast: 0.1% vs 0.5% previously
15:00 BST University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment sentiments index (prelim). 69 vs 69.5 previously
- Expectations Index. Forecast: 65 vs 65.5
- Current Conditions Index. Forecast: 74.8 vs. 75.7
- 5-year inflation expectations. Forecast: 3% vs. 3% previously
- 1-year inflation expectations. Forecast: 3.5% vs. 3.5% previously
19:00 Number of US oil rigs (Baker Hughes) Previous: 513
Central bank speeches
- 07:45 BST ECB Villeroy
- 10:45 BST ECB Lagarde
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