Today's session will be dominated by the highly anticipated Federal Reserve rate decision, alongside crucial economic data releases and central bank speeches. The Fed faces a close call between a half-point cut or a more modest quarter-point move, marking its first rate reduction in over four years. This decision comes after holding rates at a 23-year high since July 2023 and falls just weeks before the US presidential election. Top Fed officials have signaled support for rate cuts amid easing inflation, aiming to prevent economic damage from overly high borrowing costs. However, the pace of easing remains a key question. A half-point cut would swiftly return rates to normal levels, potentially safeguarding the labor market. Yet, it risks signaling undue concern about the economic outlook. Recent mixed economic data and political sensitivities add complexity to the decision. Investors will closely watch not only the Fed's decision but also inflation data from the UK and Eurozone, US housing figures, and speeches from ECB officials throughout the day.
Detailed macro calendar (BST):
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Open account Try demo Download mobile app Download mobile app10:00 am - Eurozone, Inflation Data for August (Final): CPI YoY: 2.2% (forecast) vs 2.2% (previous) Core CPI YoY: 2.8% (forecast) vs 2.8% (previous) CPI MoM: 0.2% (forecast) vs 0.0% (previous)
10:00 am - Eurozone, Construction Output for July
12:00 pm - US, MBA Mortgage Applications
1:30 pm, Canada - Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians for July: previous 16.350B
1:30 pm, Canada - Foreign Securities Purchases for July: previous 5.17B
1:30 pm - US, Housing Data for August: Housing Starts: 1.318M (forecast) vs 1.238M (previous) Building Permits: 1.41M (forecast) vs 1.406M (previous)
3:30 pm - US, EIA Crude Oil Inventories
3:30 pm, United States - GDP data: Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3): forecast 3.0%; previous 3.0%;
6:30 pm - Canada, Bank of Canada Meeting Minutes
7:00 pm - US, FOMC Rate Decision and Economic Projections: Interest Rate Decision: 5.25% (forecast) vs 5.5% (previous)
7:30 pm - US, FOMC Press Conference with Chair Powell
9:00 pm - US, Overall Net Capital Flows and TIC Data
Central bankers' speeches
- 08:00 BST - ECB's Holzmann Speaks
- 08:15 BST - ECB's Vujcic Speaks
- 08:30 BST - ECB's Buch Speaks
- 12:00 BST - ECB's Nagel Speaks
- 13:00 BST - ECB's McCaul Speaks
- 19:30 BST - Fed Chair Powell's Press Conference
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