Economic calendar: First FOMC decision of the year

Summary:

• FOMC to make first decision of 2019 today

• German CPI data to be released in the early afternoon

• Wide range of the US earnings reports to be published today

On Wednesday investors will focus primarily on the first FOMC decision of the year. Traders are wondering whether the US central bank will send a similarly downbeat message as the ECB did last week. Apart from that, German CPI report will provide an update ahead of Friday’s reading for the whole bloc. Last but not least, inventories data from DOE may turn to be a trigger for short-term price swings on the oil market.

1:00 pm GMT - Germany, CPI inflation for January. Preliminary inflation report for January from euro area is scheduled for Friday this week. The German reading will be published today and it may be used by investors to try to assess the reading for the whole bloc. However, partial data from particular states will not be released today. Market consensus expects a slowdown to 1.6% YoY.

1:15 pm GMT - US, ADP employment change for January. The official US labour market report for January will be release on Friday. However, as it is the case ahead of every NFP report release, investors will be served update from ADP on employment change. Markets expect a reading of 178k, much lower than previous 271k.

3:30 pm GMT - DOE report on oil inventories. Yesterday’s API report was expected to show a 3 million barrel build. As the reading came in somewhat lower at 2.1 mb, oil prices were supported further. The main factor that is impacting oil prices now are trade talks. As negotiations are about to be resumed today we may see some more hectic price moves on the oil market. Meanwhile. DOE report is expected to show around 3 million barrel build in oil inventories and quite a significant drop in distillate inventories.

7:00 pm GMT - FOMC decision. The first FOMC meeting of 2019 is finally here. Investors will look through statement trying to find lines hinting a deteriorating economic conditions. Focus will be also on whether central bankers stay committed to their plan of slowing the monetary tightening cycle. Note that starting from this year Fed Chairman will hold press conference after each meeting. Having said that, traders should prepare for increase volatility at 7:30 pm GMT when Jerome Powell hits the wires. One may expect journalists to ask central banker about the impact of government shutdown on the economy. No change in the level of interest rates is expected.

Major US companies reporting earnings today:

• Visa (V.US)

• Tesla (TSLA.US)

• AT&T (T.US)

• Qualcomm (QCOM.US)

• PayPal (PYPL.US)

• Microsoft (MSFT.US)

• McDonald’s (MCD.US)

• Facebook (FB.US)

• Boeing (BA.US)

EURUSD treads water a notch below the resistance zone ranging 1.1450-1.1475. The pair needs a strong impulse in case it wants to trade above 1.15 handle once again. Downbeat message from Fed could be such trigger. Source: xStation5