Today is rich in several interesting macroeconomic publications and events, which may increase volatility on both European and global markets. In the first part of the day, investors have already familiarized themselves with GDP data from Australia, which turned out slightly worse than the consensus. Then, during the opening of the cash session in Europe, trade data from Germany was published. The report showed a solid rebound in both imports and exports. The trade balance also came out much higher than expected, indicating a slight improvement in the German economy.
In the second part of the day, investors' attention will shift across the ocean. At 02:15 PM GMT, ADP employment data from the USA will be published, followed by JOLTS job openings data at 03:00 PM GMT. Expectations suggest a slight decline in JOLTS and an increase in ADP compared to last month. A big surprise in January's NFP report was the reason for a sharp strengthening of the USD. Therefore, the ideal scenario for the market would be weaker employment data for February. This would allow the January publications to be considered a one-off and simultaneously raise expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed.
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Detailed Calendar of the Day
07:00 AM GMT, Germany - Balance of Tade Data for January (published):
- German Trade Balance: actual 27.5B; forecast 21.0B; previous 22.2B;
- German Imports: actual 3.6% MoM; forecast 1.8% MoM; previous -6.7% MoM;
- German Exports: actual 6.3% MoM; forecast 1.5% MoM; previous -4.6% MoM;
01:15 PM GMT, United States - Employment Data for February:
- ADP Nonfarm Employment Change: forecast 149K; previous 107K;
02:45 PM GMT, Canada - BoC Interest Rate Decision for December:
- forecast 5.00%; previous 5.00%;
02:45 PM GMT, Canada - BoC Rate Statement
03:00 PM GMT, Canada - PMI Data for February:
- Ivey PMI: previous 56.5;
- Ivey PMI n.s.a: previous 54.4;
03:00 PM GMT, United States - JOLTs Job Openings for January:
- forecast 8.800M; previous 9.026M;
03:00 PM GMT, United States - Fed Chair Powell Testifies
03:30 PM GMT, United States - EIA Data:
- Gasoline Inventories: forecast -1.640M; previous -2.832M;
- EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks: forecast -1.000M; previous -0.510M;
- Crude Oil Inventories: forecast 2.400M; previous 4.199M;
03:30 PM GMT, Canada - BOC Press Conference
Bankers Speeches:
- 05:00 PM GMT, United States - FOMC Member Daly Speaks
- 08:15 PM GMT, United States - FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
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