Economic calendar: A lot to digest for investors

Summary:

• Final PMIs from European economies including the first (and last) reading for the UK services sector, non-manufacturing ISM from the US is also in the agenda
• US ADP employment report is expected to produce another decent increase
• DoE will release its weekly release on a change in US oil inventories

9:30 am BST - UK services PMI: So far, we have been offered two disappointments from manufacturing and construction (PMIs came in below expectations), today’s release will complete a set of PMI readings for May. The consensus points to a modest increase to 50.6 from 50.4. Nevertheless, one needs to be aware of a disappointment possibility as it was the case earlier this week. On top of that, final PMIs from European economies will be released before noon.

10:00 am BST - retail sales from EMU for April: The median estimate points to a 0.5% MoM decline after a flat reading in the previous month.

1:15 pm BST - ADP employment report: The labour market has been and probably will be one of the brightest spots of the US economy. However, despite its tightness it has failed to spur greater inflationary pressures and taking into account the current place where the US economy stands one may assume that inflation above the Fed’s target will not have even a chance to anchor. Nevertheless, a possible sub-par reading from the labour market could join other disappointing releases we have been offered of late and thereby increase a fear of an oncoming economic downturn there.

3:00 pm BST - non-manufacturing ISM for May: The release from manufacturing brought an improvement in case of both prices and employment, hence boding quite well for the future. However, a caveat needs to be applied here - the survey period was around the time when Donald Trump announced new tariffs. Anyway, expectations ahead of today’s print point to 55.4, marginally down from 55.5 seen in April. Keep in mind that PMI for services will be released 15 minutes earlier.

3:30 pm BST - DoE report on oil inventories: The consensus suggests US oil inventories have shrunk 1.6 million barrels while gasoline inventories have increased 0.3 million barrels. On the other hand, yesterday's API report showed crude inventories rising by 3.5 million barrels making official expectations too conservative.

7:00 pm BST - Fed’s Beige Book

(tentative) - Poland’s central bank rate decision

Central bankers’ speeches:

• 8:45 am BST - BoE’s Ramsden

• 10:45 am BST - Norges Bank’s Olsen

• 2:45 pm BST - Fed’s Clarida

• 3:00 pm BST - Fed’s Bowman

• 4:00 pm BST - Fed’s Bostic