Economic calendar: A bunch of crucial readings

Summary:

• Inflation prints from the UK and Canada
• German IFO for December is expected to tick up
• NZ GDP for Q3 as well as foreign trade data for November

9:00 am GMT - German IFO for December: Along with PMIs this indicator is closely watched by market observers as it may give a direction for the German economy. While the German PMI gauge for manufacturing dipped this month, the consensus points to a tiny increase to 95.5 from 95 in the case of IFO.

9:00 am GMT - Polish labour market data for November: The Polish labour market has been thriving in recent years boosting income and thereby supporting both consumption and savings. Nevertheless, it should be aware of a possible downside surprise in December due to a negative calendar effect (two working days less than it was the case last year). The consensus suggests gross wage growth to increase by 5.9% YoY while employment to grow 2.5% YoY.

9:30 am GMT - UK inflation for November: The British pound was hit heavily yesterday by Boris Johnson’s pledge to do whatever it takes to take the UK out of the EU on January 31 2020 as well as to not extend a transition period beyond 2020. At the same time, we got slightly weaker than expected wage growth which added fuel to the flames. According to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg headline CPI rose 1.4% YoY, while core price growth remained at 1.7% YoY. 

10:00 am GMT - Final CPI for November from the Eurozone: The consensus suggests CPI to remain at 1% YoY compared to 0.7% in October. At the same time, core CPI is forecast to have stood at 1.3% YoY.

12:00 pm GMT - Czech central bank rate decision: The Czech central bank is broadly expected to leave rates unchanged at its final meeting this year with its 2-week repo rate staying at 2%. 

1:30 pm GMT - Canadian inflation for November: Market-based expectations do not suggest any changes in rates in Canada over the next twelve months while still seeing some space for rate cuts in the case of the United States. Therefore, firmer price growth could only increase this divergence in favour of the CAD. Headline CPI is estimated to rise 2.2% YoY while virtually no changes are expected as for core inflation indicators. 

3:30 pm GMT - DoE crude inventories data: Oil traders were taken by surprise by yesterday’s API report showing a sizeable build in US crude inventories. That lifts a bar ahead of today’s governmental reading. The Bloomberg median estimate suggests a 2.1 million barrels decrease while gasoline inventories are expected to fell 2 million barrels. 

9:45 pm GMT - NZ GDP for Q3 and foreign trade data for November: It will be a big day for the NZ dollar as two important readings are scheduled for this evening. First of all, GDP growth is anticipated to speed up to 2.3% from 2.1% YoY. Secondly, a foreign trade print is expected to show a shallower trade deficit with somewhat stronger exports and weaker imports.

Central bankers’ speeches:

• 8:30 am GMT - ECB’s Lagarde

• 10:15 am GMT - Fed’s Brainard

• 11:15 am GMT - Fed’s Coeure

• 5:40 pm GMT - Fed’s Evans