DE30: DAX waits for US NFP near 16,000 level. Aurubis sell-off!

10:00 1 September 2023
  • European indices are trading slightly higher
  • Bulls on the DE30 are trying to break through the 16,000 point resistance before NFP report
  • Eurozone industry continues to weaken, PMI reading from Germany showed no improvement
  • Volkswagen Group (VOW1.DE) and Porsche (P911.DE) lead automotive sector declines
  • 15% drop on Aurubis (NDA.DE), Europe's largest copper producer fails to meet annual forecasts due to potentially huge copper inventory theft
  • Strong session for Fielmann (FIE.DE) after raising sales forecasts

European stock indices are posting modest gains today but these are mainly due to strong earnings from oil companies, which support higher prices for 'black gold. Sentiment in the Asian session was mixed after China's manufacturing PMI came in slightly below forecasts but a rally in Samsung shares helped tech companies in Japan (TOPIX) and South Korea (KOSPI). After the main macro data from Europe has already been released, investors are waiting for the most important report of the week from the US, the NFP.

Data from the US labor market is sending mixed signals (weak ADP, JOLTS and Challenger report, lower claims for another week in a row) so the market may read today's NFP as a definitive reflection of the current situation - Wall Street's reaction may also be crucial for DAX index sentiment. Today we learned the final and first readings of the PMI indexes for industry from the Eurozone countries. The situation is very weak and in general turned out to be worse than the preliminary readings. Germany performed as poorly as before, but in the Eurozone as a whole, today's macro data came in weaker than expected.

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  • Spain PMI for industry: 46.5 (expected: 48.5; previous: 47.8)
  • France: 46 (expected: 46.4; previous: 54.1)
  • Germany: 39.1 (expected: 39.1; previous: 38.8)
  • Eurozone: 43.5 (expected: 43.7; previous: 42.7)

Calendar of important reports for the DAX in the following hours of the session:

  • NFP report - Non-farm payrolls (US, 13:30 BST)
  • PMI industry data (USA, 14:45 BST)
  • ISM industry data (USA, 15:00 BST)

The sentiments during European session are mixed. The automotive sector losing heavily, oil and gas companies doing much better. Renault (RNO.FR) shares were downgraded to 'Sell' by UBS, the target price was cut by 25%. Source: xStation5

DE30 is struggling to permanently break through 16,000 points, from where supply has been triggered several times. Another attack on these levels could finally come to fruition and signal the exhaustion of the sellers - which would potentially open the index's way to new yearly maxima. The RSI and MACD indicators are still 'cooled', with the index holding above the 23.6 Fibonacci elimination of the August 25 upward wave. Source: xStation5Percentage changes of companies listed in the DAX index. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

Copper giant Aurubis (NDA.DE) warned of hundreds of millions of EUR in losses, pointing to a scrap shipping scam that the company uses for recycling. According to the company's comments, it was a victim of manipulation and reported that it no longer expected to 'prove' this year's profit forecast. The company was buying up and processing thousands of tons of scrap metal (the production of offcuts from old cables, pipes and circuit boards) every day for refining.

Aurubis (NDA.DE) shares are trading nearly 15% lower today and opened the session with a downward gap from which they managed to erase a small part of the movement. Looking at the 'death cross' formation on the D1 interval - which, depending on the case, can indicate a near-term 'price bottom' or foreshadow a longer downtrend - we see that it provides mixed signals. However, in the context of the overall global macro situation, the baseline and bearish scenario seems likely to be a longer, downward trend resulting from the overall weakness of an industry closely linked to global consumption and credit. At the same time, looking at the history of recent years, dips deep below the SMA200 ultimately always turned out to be a 'bargain' for long-term investors. Source: xStation5

Analyst recommendations

  • Beiersdorf (BEI.DE) has been assigned an 'Overweight' rating at JP Morgan. The target price set by analysts is EUR 140 per share


Beiersdorf (BEI.DE) started session with a bullish price gap, supported by JP Morgan's comments. The stock is trading above key moving averages and important Fibonacci retracement levels of the upward wave from the fall of 2022. The SMA200 and SMA100 averages on the H4 interval have formed a 'golden cross' formation, which is potentially a bullish signal. Source: xStation5

Top news from the German stock market. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

This content has been created by XTB S.A. This service is provided by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, entered in the register of entrepreneurs of the National Court Register (Krajowy Rejestr Sądowy) conducted by District Court for the Capital City of Warsaw, XII Commercial Division of the National Court Register under KRS number 0000217580, REGON number 015803782 and Tax Identification Number (NIP) 527-24-43-955, with the fully paid up share capital in the amount of PLN 5.869.181,75. XTB S.A. conducts brokerage activities on the basis of the license granted by Polish Securities and Exchange Commission on 8th November 2005 No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005 and is supervised by Polish Supervision Authority.

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