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Indices in the USA end the day with slight declines due to the bulls' lack of strength for a rebound. At the time of publication, US500 is down 0.30%, US100 is trading 0.40% lower, and US200 is down 0.50%.
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US PCE inflation came in as expected at 2.5% YoY (previously 2.6% YoY). Despite the decline compared to the previous month, PCE remains at high levels.
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The report on American spending showed an increase in income by as much as 0.9% MoM and a decrease in expenditures by 0.2% MoM. This illustrates significant uncertainty among Americans. In real terms, spending drops by as much as 0.5% MoM.
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The US dollar remains slightly strengthened following macroeconomic reports from the USA. However, the main reason continues to be the ongoing high volatility in international politics. The euro gains 0.01% to 1.0395 USD.
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Today's data on US goods trade showed the largest deficit in history at $153 billion. This is most likely related to expectations of tariffs coming into effect in March. The goods deficit amounted to $153.3 billion, compared to the expected deficit of $115 billion.
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As a result, the GDPNow model currently predicts a GDP decline of 1.5% in the first quarter. Before today's data, the model projected growth of 2.3%.
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The Canadian dollar does not react strongly to the publication of Canada's GDP data, which slightly exceeds expectations. The Canadian economy recorded strong growth in the last quarter of 2024. However, market attention is now focused on the tariffs imposed by the US on Canadian imports, which could impact future publications.
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USDCAD initially dropped but eventually continued its upward trend due to concerns over the potential imposition of 25% tariffs next week. The Mexican peso is also losing value.
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The conversation between Trump and Zelensky at the White House concerns an agreement on mining minerals needed by the USA. Trump is pushing for an end to the war, while Zelensky seeks continued support to win the war against Russia.
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The German CPI report showed a slight increase in prices in February to 2.8% (forecast: 2.7% YoY). In response to the German inflation reading, EURUSD slightly strengthened.
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Gold experiences its largest weekly decline since November, dropping approximately 3% and breaking below $2,850 per ounce. The declines in gold and other commodities are driven by a search for liquidity amid strong stock market declines.
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Oil prices remain low despite expectations that OPEC+ may soon change its decision on delaying the timing of production increases. At the moment, the plan still calls for an increase in production by 180,000 barrels per day starting in April. In the past, OPEC+ has announced changes to its decisions at least a month in advance.
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Bitcoin is recovering some of its losses and is currently trading at $84,000 after correcting to $78,300 earlier in the day. Declines in the cryptocurrency market are significantly stronger than in the stock market, and sentiment is comparable to the bear market and bottom seen during the summer of 2024.
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The correction in Bitcoin has already exceeded 23%, with a low of nearly 29% from highs above $107,000.
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