Daily summary: Investors temper optimism amid disappointing progress in trade negotiations 🔎📄

U.S. indices on Wall Street began today with gains driven by better-than-expected bank results for the first quarter of 2025 and hopes of limiting the scale of the trade war.

However, gains of over one percent on the main indices were reduced after information emerged that EU-US trade talks are not progressing well.

White House spokesperson Leavitt conveyed that Donald Trump claims that in terms of tariffs, "the ball is in China’s court," and that the U.S. does not need to make a deal with them.

The U.S. administration also criticized Beijing’s decision today to halt airplane orders from Boeing, citing the cost of the trade war. This led to another 2% drop in the company’s stock.

It appears that progress in negotiations has stalled, although Leavitt claims that the U.S. already has 15 offers from trade partners on the table and will analyze them carefully.

According to a Bloomberg report, the EU expects U.S. tariffs to remain in place for longer. The European Union and United States officials have made little progress in resolving trade disputes. As a result, officials from President Donald Trump’s administration have indicated that most U.S. tariffs on the Union will remain in force.

At the time of publication, the US500 is trading around opening levels, US100 is up 0.15%, and US2000 is gaining 0.20%. The dollar index is up 0.55%.

Cocoa futures (COCOA) traded on the ICE exchange are falling nearly 4% today due to forecasts of rainfall in Brazil and Asia and weak grind data, which are raising market concerns about demand.

A collapse in cocoa bean processing in Malaysia by 15% in Q1 2025 (according to the Malaysian Cocoa Board and Cocoa Manufacturers Association) and in Brazil by 13% in Q1 2025 (AIPC) signals weakening demand after last year’s price increases. Cocoa declines are also supported by rainfall forecasts in Brazil, Africa, and key growing areas in Asia.

Significantly lower inflation reading in Canada for March: 2.3% y/y (expected: 2.7% y/y; previous: 2.6% y/y). Although the BoC indicated that it did not want to cut interest rates recently, the clear inflation slowdown and continued significant risks to the economy related to tariffs are causing the pricing of a rate cut during tomorrow’s session to rise from 40% to 50%. The Canadian dollar weakened.

In the cryptocurrency market, sentiment is similar to that on the broader stock market. Bitcoin is down 0.05% to $84,500 and has trimmed earlier gains from around $86,000.