Daily summary: Global equities edge up at the beginning of the week

• European indices finished the first session of the week higher, with the DAX adding 1.13%, boosted by tech, travel and leisure stocks.

• Commerzbank shares rose nearly 5%, as Germany's second-biggest lender re-entered DAX index. 

• ECB's Vujcic said markets are right to price at 50 bps at the March meeting.

• FTSE 100 closed 0.72% higher after British PM Sunak signed a new trade deal with the European Union, known as the Windsor Framework, to tackle issues with the Northern Ireland Protocol.

• Major Wall Street indices are trading higher, however, gave back some of the early gains, with Dow Jones gains 0.4%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5% and 0.9%, respectively, as investors digested new economic data while reassessing the outlook for monetary policy.

• US durable goods orders, which measure the cost of orders received by manufacturers of goods meant to last at least three years, dropped 4.5% MoM in January, above analysts estimates of 4.0%, reversing from a downwardly revised 5.1% jump in December. 

• US January pending home sales jumped 8.1% well above market estimates of 1.0%.

• Fed's Jefferson said the labor market is 'very strong' with demand high and rejected arguments for raising the 2% inflation goal.

• Morgan Stanley now expects the Fed to deliver the first interest rate cut in March 2024 vs previous forecast of December 2023. Bank's analysts expect the Fed to lower interest rates at a slower pace of 25 bp each quarter, and see the Fed fund rate at 4.25% by end of 2024.

• Market participants now look ahead to more US economic reports, such as consumer confidence, the ISM manufacturing survey, and corporate earnings.

• Oil prices fell over 1.7% on Monday as Goldman Sachs now estimates that Brent price will oscillate $90 in Q2 compared to $105 previously with price gradually rising to $100 at year end. Nagas rose over 4.0%, moving further away from recent lows around $2.0.

• Precious metals trade mixed despite a weaker dollar. Gold bounced off fresh lows at $1807 and is moving towards major resistance at $1820, while silver continues to move lower and tests the $20.55 mark.

• The US dollar is the worst performing G10 currency today amid a light economic calendar and lack of major headlines. EURUSD managed to return above 1.0600 level, while GBPUSD pair jumped above 1.2050 as the Northern Ireland Brexit deal was agreed.

• Cryptocurrencies are still under pressure  despite upbeat comments from  the head of the International Monetary Fund. Georgieva said the IMF prefers to regulate crypto than banning it outright. Nevertheless Bitcoin again fell below the $23,300 mark as short-Bitcoin funds recorded $10 million in weekly inflows according to CoinShares data.

Despite overall negative sentiment US100 managed to defend key support at 12000 pts last week. As long as it sits above this level, upward move ma accelerates towards resistance at 13000 pts. Source: xStation5