Cryptocurrencies are waiting for higher volatility ahead of FOMC decission 📊

13:08 14 December 2022

Cryptocurrencies await the Fed's decision on interest rates. This year, the Federal Reserve's press conferences have caused a surge in volatility among digital assets each time. Bitcoin is holding near $18,000, while investors are currently paying $1,340 for Ethereum:

  • According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the value of BTC is based on its potential future utility. According to the bank, the level of future adoption remains highly sensitive to changes in interest rates;
  • Goldman Sachs believes that this year marks the "end of the decade of easy money" - Central banks have raised interest rates, and speculative positions in gold and Bitcoin have fallen;
  • Gold remains more or less unchanged year-on-year, while Bitcoin is down 75%, as are some technology companies listed on US indices;
  • According to Goldman Sachs, more expensive money will hamper cryptocurrency adoption by users, making a repeat of the bull market cycles of the past decade unlikely;
  • At the same time, according to the bank, Bitcoin's volatility will remain elevated until more use cases develop. When they do develop, its volatility will drop, according to the bank;
  • The bank said that cryptocurrency adoption has been bolstered by favorable financial conditions in previous years, and some investors are more willing to acquire high-risk assets like Bitcoin;
  • According to Goldman Sachs, the major cryptocurrency still depends on interest rates more than gold, as the precious metal has developed non-investment cases to date, while Bitcoin is still looking for it which is a bit like an asset that is 'solution looking for a problem;
  • Most of Bitcoin's supply has remained unchanged for more than a year, indicating that the cryptocurrency is being held for investment purposes, the note added;
  • According to BeInCrypto, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, has weathered the storm of recent days during which it processed a total of $5 billion in withdrawals without any problems;
  • Analyst firm Glassnode, which tracks on-chain data about $1.4 billion in BTC exited cryptocurrency exchanges in the past 24 hours. However, the net outflow of BTC from exchanges slowed to just $641 million;
  • Bitcoin Group SE, operator of the German cryptocurrency trading platform bitcoin.de, announced that it has acquired a 100% stake in Bankhaus von der Heydt. The bank holds a full banking license and is a provider of digital asset storage and tokenization services;

Bankman-Fried himself was arrested by police in the Bahamas, from where he is likely to be extradited to the US to face charges.
Wall Street expects the FOMC to raise interest rates by 50 bps. Bulls will pay particular attention to Powell's narrative and the 2023 hint after the rate of decline in US inflation positively surprised financial markets yesterday. The Fed's dovish indications may favor a rebound in the cryptocurrency market. In contrast, Powell's cooling of the euphoria of recent weeks with his hawkish comments could cause them to discount more. Investors are now facing another prospect of uncertainty as inflation is finally falling, but this does not at all necessarily portend the resolution of a deeper recession and is probably the result of its occurrence. 

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Bitcoin chart, H1 interval. The relative strength index of the major cryptocurrency is near 70 points, confirming levels close to overbought. The price has found itself above the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement. It seems possible that a dovish Powell speech will cause the price to rise in the area of $19,000. In turn, a still hawkish narrative around monetary policy next year could result in an increase in risk aversion and a retest of the $17,000 levels, from where bears will want to test the durability of the recent unwinding. Source: xStation5

This content has been created by XTB S.A. This service is provided by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, entered in the register of entrepreneurs of the National Court Register (Krajowy Rejestr Sądowy) conducted by District Court for the Capital City of Warsaw, XII Commercial Division of the National Court Register under KRS number 0000217580, REGON number 015803782 and Tax Identification Number (NIP) 527-24-43-955, with the fully paid up share capital in the amount of PLN 5.869.181,75. XTB S.A. conducts brokerage activities on the basis of the license granted by Polish Securities and Exchange Commission on 8th November 2005 No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005 and is supervised by Polish Supervision Authority.

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