The USDCAD pair may experience some wild price swings today at 1:30 pm BST following the release of jobs reports from US and Canada. The US economy likely added 250K jobs in September, which would be the lowest job gain since December of 2020 and a drop from an average of 438K in the first eight months of the year. However, it would still point to a tight labour market and a job gain above the monthly average of 167k in the 2010s, pushing employment about 500K higher than its pre-pandemic level. However, it should be remembered that the NFP report is very variable (and strongly revised in the following months), so a surprise cannot be ruled out. A weak reading would likely support equity markets and other risky assets.
Yesterday USDCAD pair managed to break above major resistance at 1.3660 which coincides with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the downward wave launched in March 2020. Better than expected NFP reading could provide further support to US dollar and pair may test recent highs at 1.3850. On the other hand, in case of a weak data, another downward impulse towards lows at 1.3500 may be launched.
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USDCAD, D1 interval. Source: xStation5
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