USDCAD is one of the currency pairs that may see some more volatility in the early afternoon today. This is because two key reports will be released at 1:30 pm BST - US NFP report for August and Canadian GDP report for Q2 2023. The US jobs report will, of course, attract more attention than data from Canada.
NFP report for August is one of the final two key data pieces from the United States left to be reported ahead of the next FOMC meeting (September 20, 2023). The other one is US CPI data for August that will be released on September 13, 2023. Today's jobs report is expected to show a 170k increase in non-farm payrolls as well as unemployment rate and wage growth staying unchanged at 3.5% and 4.4% YoY respectively. A miss in headline NFP number would add to a streak of data suggesting softening in the US labor market (i.e. JOTLS, Challenger report) and can cement expectations for the upcoming FOMC meeting.
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Open account Try demo Download mobile app Download mobile appWhen it comes to data from Canada, annualized growth in Q2 2023 is expected to have decelerated to 1.2% from 3.1% reported in Q1 2023.
1:30 pm BST - US, NFP report for August.
- Non-farm payrolls. Expected: 170k. Previous: 187k
- Private payrolls. Expected: 150k. Previous: 172k
- Unemployment rate. Expected: 3.5%. Previous: 3.5%
- Wage growth. Expected: 4.4% YoY. Previous: 4.4% YoY
1:30 pm BST - Canada, annualized GDP growth for Q2 2023. Expected: 1.2%. Previous: 3.1%
Taking a look at USDCAD chart at H1 interval, we can see that the pair is testing a key support zone in the 1.3500 area. This zone is marked with previous price reactions, lower limit of the market geometry as well as the 23.6% retracement of the upward move launched in mid-July 2023. A break below this area would be a strong hint that a bearish trend reversal may be underway. Whether the pair 'makes or breaks' it may be decided around 1:30 pm BST with data setting the direction for the pair.
Source: xStation5
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