Chart of the day - US100 (28.03.2025)

U.S. stock market sentiment has weakened once again, with the Nasdaq on track to close its weakest quarter since 2023. The index has failed to break above its 200-day EMA (red line).

• A key momentum test may arrive around 12:30 GMT, when February’s PCE inflation data is released. The market expects inflation to rise by 2.5% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month. A reading at or below those levels would likely ease market concerns about rising inflation expectations translating into actual price pressures.
• However, a reading above expectations could serve as a stressor for the markets, potentially signaling that the Federal Reserve may refocus on its inflation control mandate and keep interest rates unchanged—even as troubling signals continue to emerge from both U.S. households and corporate sentiment indicators.
• Despite recent corrections, Nasdaq valuations remain stretched, and a drop below the 200-day EMA could indicate a return to a broader downtrend. For the past two sessions, selling volume has clearly dominated.
• According to Fed's Thomas Barkin, tariffs are almost certain to increase inflationary pressures, while the economic outlook has become more complex—growth is slowing, and sentiment is weakening.

US100 Index (Daily Interval)

Nasdaq 100 futures have fallen below the 20,000-point level.
Data from Deutsche Bank shows that liquidity in U.S. markets has dropped to near 2-year lows, increasing the potential for elevated volatility and greater susceptibility of indices to selling pressure.

So far, the U.S. administration has not distanced itself from previously announced tariffs, and as long as markets feel no relief on that front, bears are likely to retain solid arguments for maintaining a risk-off sentiment.

Source: xStation5