NATGAS is experiencing a substantial decline of over 3% this morning, largely erasing the rebound that occurred in the previous two sessions (it's noteworthy that a rollover transpired between December 21 and 22 was negative). The price is falling significantly despite the emergence of new weather forecasts in the United States indicating a noticeable cooling trend in the coming weeks. On the other hand, the Christmas season was one of the warmest on record, potentially suggesting reduced natural gas consumption in the past couple of days. On Thursday, we will receive the data on natural gas inventories. Previous data showed a reduction of 87 bcf. A decline in inventories within the 50-80 bcf range would be negative to natural gas prices. However, there have been years when reductions of 100-200 bcf have occurred during this period of the year which caused a rebound in prices. Simultaneously, with such elevated temperatures, it's challenging to anticipate such a significant decline in inventories. Seasonality still points to declines for the remainder of this year. The nearest support level is 2.38, the local low from December 19th.
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Open account Try demo Download mobile app Download mobile appWeather forecasts indicate cooling from the southeast at the turn of the year. Source: NOAA
Source: xStation5
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