Bitcoin pulls back from record highs as Fed's hawkish stance dampens crypto enthusiasm, though structural demand from ETFs remains robust. The leading cryptocurrency retreated over 10% from its all-time peak above $108,000, highlighting how monetary policy expectations continue to influence digital asset valuations despite growing institutional adoption.
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Open account Try demo Download mobile app Download mobile appKey Market Statistics:
- Current Price: $97,343
- Recent All-Time High: $108,000+
- Weekly Change: -10%
- YTD Performance: +140%
- Post-US Election Gain: +45%
- Daily ETF Flows: -$491.4M
Fed Policy Impact
The cryptocurrency's sharp correction reflects the broader market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's cautious outlook on rate cuts. While the Fed delivered the expected third consecutive rate reduction, their projected path for 2025 proved less accommodative than anticipated, triggering profit-taking across risk assets.
ETF Flows
Despite the price volatility, the cumulative 20-day ETF flows remain strongly positive at $6.93 billion, suggesting sustained institutional appetite. BlackRock iShares and Fidelity Wise Origin products continue to dominate inflows, indicating that the spot ETF market is maturing as a key driver of bitcoin price discovery.
Institutional Developments
Trump's pro-crypto stance and plans for a strategic bitcoin reserve have provided fundamental support since the November election. Meanwhile, El Salvador, despite reaching a $1.4 billion IMF deal, has reaffirmed its commitment to bitcoin as legal tender, with Bitcoin Office Director Stacy Herbert announcing continued accumulation of the country's 5,968 BTC holdings (valued at $594 million). This comes even as the IMF agreement stipulates that tax payments will be limited to US dollars. On the institutional front, the SEC's approval of dual Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs from Hashdex and Franklin Templeton marks another milestone in crypto's mainstream adoption. Franklin Templeton's filing received accelerated clearance due to compliance with existing commodity-based trust share standards, further expanding institutional access to digital assets.
2025 Outlook
While near-term volatility may persist as markets digest the Fed's policy trajectory, structural demand from ETFs and potential regulatory clarity under a Trump administration could provide support. The interplay between monetary policy, institutional adoption, and political developments suggests bitcoin will remain sensitive to both macro and crypto-specific catalysts through 2025.
Bitcoin (D1 Interval)
Bitcoin is currently trading below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. It has twice attempted to breach the 30-day EMA, which acts as strong support and has not been retested for more than 45 days, dating back to the beginning of the leg up from $67k. Additional support is located at the November low of $91,640.
For bulls to regain control, the price must quickly accelerate above the 20-day and 15-day EMAs, surpassing $100k. This could lead to a potential retest of resistance at $101,500. Bears, on the other hand, are likely targeting the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which coincides with the 50-day EMA and November low. Previous retests of the 50-day EMA resulted in quick rebounds.
The RSI is stabilizing in the neutral zone, while the MACD is expanding bearish divergence. Meanwhile, the ADX remains tight, indicating no clear directional momentum. Source: xStation
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