Bitcoin is down 2% today and currently hovers around the $45,000 level. Investor activity in the last day of waiting for SEC Bitcoin ETF decision is quite low. Market speculation indicates that the SEC's decision may take place at the beginning or at the end of the US business session (around 1 PM GMT or 8 PM GMT). Undoubtedly, these are periods during which it is worthwhile to remain vigilant, although the SEC final announcement could come at any time today. BlackRock cut costs (TER) of the iShares Bitcoin ETF to 0.25% which sector commentators interpreted as another signal of possible SEC green light today, but the future remains unknown.
In anticipation of the SEC
- BTC skyrocketed yesterday to the vicinity of $48,000 after a 'fake' positive announcement from the SEC, which turned out to be the result of a hack. Since then, sentiment has slowly weakened and investors remain cautious
- The small amount of volume and transactions today may suggest that investors are waiting for the decision, and the market is showing the first signs of 'exhaustion' after the euphoric rally since October
- A spike in Bitcoin's volatility after the SEC announcement seems very likely, even more so given the low volume and lower market depth
- Volatility could also be seen in stocks related to the crypto sector, including Coinbase (COIN.US), Microstrategy (MSTR.US) and Riot (RIOT.US), among others
Sizable profits = pressure to sell
- The amount of BTC addresses in profit is about 95% according to the latest NUPL on-chain (Glassnode) reading. This coincides with phases indicating market overheating and increasing selling pressure from short term-holders. On the other hand, however, the reaction to the SEC's decision is unpredictable
- VanEck's sources suggested, for example, that BlackRock has about $2 billion in investor reserves that will feed into the iShares spot ETF in the first week of trading, which could significantly affect the price of BTC
- All of this leads to the conclusion that what will happen moments after the (eventual) approval of the ETF applications (capital inflows and BTC buying) is very important
Is Gensler still skeptical?
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The head of the SEC,Gary Gensler has strongly indicated that the Agency has not approved any spot Bitcoin ETF applications, putting a question mark over whether the final decision (which we will learn today) will be positive
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On the other hand, yesterday's announcement by the SEC chairman can be interpreted as information that straightens out the fraudsters' message that the US regulator has accepted the applications
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The day before yesterday, Gensler issued a statement highlighting the well-known risks of investing in Bitcoin, including the risk of lawsuits and political actions that can affect its price
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Gensler's statement on X was received mixed, although anonymous sources among lawyers working with the SEC from FoxBusiness indicated that the statement is likely a prelude to ETF approval
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On the other hand, Gensler's stance may signal the Agency's aversion to Bitcoin and determination to 'protect investors' by preventing them from gaining an allocation in BTC through, among other things, pension plans or other tools that would likely be triggered after a positive SEC decision.
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Bitcoin's price could react sharply, regardless of the regulators' announcement. According to Glassnode's latest report, Bitcoin's volatility is currently close to +1 deviation from average, which has historically coincided with temporary volatility spikes.
Bitcoin chart (M30 interval)
Source: xStation5
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