Read the analysis to prepare for the market even of the week!
The ECB decision (12:45pm BST) and conference (1:30pm) is the most anticipated calendar event this week. Below we present 3 possible scenarios.
NEUTRAL
Start investing today or test a free demo
Open account Try demo Download mobile app Download mobile appThe Bank changes projections slightly, pointing out to risks of too low inflation and suggesting that further monetary easing could be necessary if the inflation outlook remains unfavorable. After yesterday’s rumors this seems to be the market consensus and thus such outcome should ne fairly neutral for EURUSD and DE3O.
DOVISH
The ECB lowers inflation projections significantly and extends the PEPP asset purchase program beyond June 2021. While more monetary easing will do little to boost economic outlook (beyond inflating asset prices) the ECB could be forced to respond to the dovish Fed. Dovish decisions are typically negative for EURUSD and positive for DE30.
HAWKISH
The ECB changes projections marginally, is upbeat on the outlook, no clear suggestions of further easing for now. This outcome seemed unlikely but the rumors say some of the members are against further easing. Hawkish decisions are typically positive for EURUSD and negative for DE30.
Here are projections from June – the key reference point for today’s decision and conference:
Source: ECB
Make sure to visit the “News” section for out comment on the ECB meeting!
This content has been created by XTB S.A. This service is provided by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, entered in the register of entrepreneurs of the National Court Register (Krajowy Rejestr Sądowy) conducted by District Court for the Capital City of Warsaw, XII Commercial Division of the National Court Register under KRS number 0000217580, REGON number 015803782 and Tax Identification Number (NIP) 527-24-43-955, with the fully paid up share capital in the amount of PLN 5.869.181,75. XTB S.A. conducts brokerage activities on the basis of the license granted by Polish Securities and Exchange Commission on 8th November 2005 No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005 and is supervised by Polish Supervision Authority.