Morning Wrap (18.12.2024)

8:36 am 18 December 2024

  • Asian markets trade cautiously ahead of the Fed's December meeting, where a 25bps rate cut is widely expected but focus remains on 2025 guidance. Wall Street set a nervous tone with the NASDAQ retreating from record highs and the Dow Jones experiencing its worst losing streak in over 40 years. US futures remain flat in Asian trade.
  • South Korea's KOSPI rose 1% as acting President Han Duck-soo continued to assure markets of stability following President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment. Australia's ASX 200 gained 0.2%, while Singapore's Straits Times Index fell 0.3%, reflecting mixed regional sentiment.
  • China plans to boost fiscal spending significantly, with Reuters reporting Beijing will target a record 4% GDP deficit in 2025, up from the current 3% target. The increase implies additional spending of 1.3 trillion yuan ($179.4B), spurring gains in mainland markets. The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite rose 0.6% and 0.7% respectively, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.9%.
  • Japanese automakers Honda and Nissan are in merger talks that could create the world's third-largest auto manufacturer with annual output of 7.4 million vehicles. The news triggered massive moves in auto stocks, with Nissan surging 22% and Mitsubishi jumping 13%, while Honda fell 2%. The potential merger reflects growing pressure from Chinese EV makers and Tesla on traditional automakers.
  • The dollar maintains its strength near three-week highs as markets anticipate a hawkish Fed outlook. Strong US retail sales data reinforced expectations of gradual rate cuts in 2025. The Australian dollar hit a one-year low at $0.6325, while the New Zealand dollar touched a two-year low of $0.5748, reflecting broad dollar strength.
  • Iran's Revolutionary Guards have significantly expanded their control over the country's oil industry, now managing up to 50% of exports compared to 20% three years ago, according to Western officials and security sources. The development complicates Western sanctions effectiveness as Trump prepares to return to the White House. Oil prices remain under pressure with WTI trading at $70.60 and Brent at $73.34 per barrel.
  • Eli Lilly received approval from China's drug regulator for its Alzheimer's treatment Kisunla (donanemab), marking the fourth major market authorization after the US, Japan, and UK. The treatment, which targets beta amyloid proteins in the brain, is priced at $32,000 for a 12-month course in the US, compared to competitor Leqembi's $26,500.
  • Gold prices hold steady at $2,646 ahead of the Fed meeting, facing pressure from dollar strength and expectations of a slower rate cut path in 2025. Meanwhile, copper declined 0.4% to $8,973 despite China's stimulus plans, as recent data continues to show weakness in the world's largest copper consumer.
  • Congress is set to vote on new legislation restricting US investments in Chinese technology sectors, particularly in AI and national security-sensitive areas. The bill expands on existing Treasury restrictions and includes provisions for reviewing Chinese real estate purchases near sensitive sites and scrutinizing telecom licenses held by foreign adversaries.
  • Boeing announced the resumption of production across its 737, 767, and 777/777X programs following the end of a seven-week machinists' strike. The FAA maintains its cap of 38 MAX aircraft per month, implemented after January's Alaska Airlines incident, with a review planned for January 2025.
  • Bitcoin retreated from its new all-time high of $108,152, currently trading around $103,500, while Ethereum dropped 5% from above $4,000 to $3,832 as crypto markets digested recent gains ahead of the Fed decision.

The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.

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