- European index contracts point to a lower opening on European stock exchanges
- The day will be marked by the publication of preliminary PMI data from services and industry for July (9 AM BST Eurozone, 2:45 PM BST US)
- Bank of Canada decision expected at 2:45 PM BST - investors are hoping for a 25bp cut
The first results of US 'megacaps' failed to improve sentiment on the indices; both Tesla and Alphabet lost ground in trading before the market opened. Today, the market will keep a close eye on data that could convince investors of an even higher likelihood of Fed rate cuts in the fall. Consensus points to no significant change in Europe's PMI indexes relative to June, with services still expected to be strong with a slight rebound in manufacturing.
Expectations for U.S. data point to a very slight cooling in services versus an almost unchanged situation for manufacturing. The market is hoping for data firmly above the 50 mark, which remains the 'conventional' boundary between slowdown and economic expansion. After yesterday's API data, which indicated a stronger-than-forecast decline in U.S. crude inventories, today's official EIA data could again raise volatility in the oil market. After the US session, IBM (IBM.US) will report results; the stock has been in an upward trend for the past several months.
Macro calendar
8:30 AM BST, Germany, flash PMI data for July. Expected 50.6 vs. 50.4 in June
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Services. Expected 53.3 vs. 53.1 previously.
- Manufacturing. Expected 44 vs. 43.5 previously
9 AM BST, Eurozone, flash PMI data for July. Expected 50.9 vs. 50.8 in June
- Services. Expected 52.9 vs. 52.8 previously
- Manufacturing. Expected 46.1 vs. 45.8 previously
9:30 AM BST, flash UK PMI data for July. Expected 52.6 vs. 52.3 in June
- Services. Expected 52.5 vs. 52.1 previously
- Manufacturing. Expected 51 vs. 50.9 previously
1:30 PM BST, US, Wholesale inventories. Expected 0.5% y/y increase vs. 0.6% increase previously
2:45 PM BST, Canada, Bank of Canada interest rate decision. Expected 4.5% vs. 4.75% previously
2:45 PM BST, United States flash PMI for July. Services. Expected 54.9 vs. 55.3 previously
- Manufacturing. Expected 51.6 vs. 51.6 previously
3 PM BST, US, new home sales. Expected 640k vs. 614k in May (3.4% y/y vs. -11% previously)
3:30 PM BST, USA, Change in oil inventories according to EIA. Expected -2.83 million barrels vs -4.8 million previously
- Gasoline inventories. Expected 1 million vs. 3.22 million previously
- Distillate stocks. Expected 1 million vs. 3.34 million previously
Earnings reports
- LVMH (MC.FR) - ahead of the session in Europe
- AT&T (ATT.US) - before the session on Wall Street
- IBM (IBM.US) - after the session on Wall Street
Speeches by central bankers
- 1 PM BST - ECB Lane
- 3:30 PM BST - BoC Macklem
- 9:05 / 9:10 PM BST - Fed Bowman and Logan
