BREAKING: US NFP data lower than expectations, dollar falls 📌

01:30 PM BST, United States - Employment Data for October:

• Nonfarm Payrolls: actual 12K; forecast 106K; previous 223K;
  • Private Nonfarm Payrolls: actual -28K; forecast 90K; previous 192K;
  • Manufacturing Payrolls: actual -46K; forecast -28K; previous -6K;
  • Government Payrolls: actual 40.0K; previous 31.0K;
• Participation Rate: actual 62.6%; forecast 62.7%; previous 62.7%;
• Average Hourly Earnings: actual 0.4% MoM; forecast 0.3% MoM; previous 0.3% MoM;
• Unemployment Rate: actual 4.1%; forecast 4.1%; previous 4.1%;
• Average Hourly Earnings: actual 4.0% YoY; forecast 4.0% YoY; previous 3.9% YoY;
• U6 Unemployment Rate: actual 7.7%; previous 7.7%;
• Average Weekly Hours: actual 34.3; forecast 34.2; previous 34.3;

In October 2024, the U.S. labor market saw minimal change with total nonfarm payroll employment increasing by just 12,000 jobs, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%. Employment gains continued in the health care and government sectors, while temporary help services experienced job losses and manufacturing employment declined due to strike activity. Notably, Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which struck the southeastern U.S. causing severe damage and evacuations, may have affected employment figures and data collection, potentially distorting the month's labor statistics. 

Despite this additional warning, the BLS also notes that it is not possible to quantify the impact of the hurricanes on employment changes. Furthermore, the hurricanes did not have a noticeable effect on the unemployment rate. Following the data release, we observed a sharp decline in the value of the dollar, which dropped by 0.35%. On the other hand, stock indices and cryptocurrencies rebound. The market is now pricing in a higher likelihood of rate cuts in 2025, including a 25 basis point cut at the November and December meetings.