Apertura Europea: La renta variable alemana abre al alza al abrigo de los posibles estímulos económico

Resumen

• Olaf Scholz señala posible estímulos ante una creciente amenaza de recesión
• El índice DAX (DE30 en xStation5) rompe al alza la línea de tendencia bajista 
• Un positivo sentimiento económico impulsa a la renta variable alemana, en contra de las negativas proyecciones de analistas 

Global equity markets started a new week in an upbeat mood. Gains were spotted during the Asian session and can be observed in the first hour of the European trading. Remarks of the German authorities hinting at possible stimulus at time of declining economic activity are among the reasons behind the good performance of major indices.

Recovery started at the end of the previous week brought price of the German DE30 (DAX futures underlying) to the downward sloping trendline. Along with the higher opening of a new week, index found itself above the aforementioned trendline line and all key moving averages (50-, 100- and 200-hour). Continuation of the upward move could take the price to the 11775 pts handle where the short-term resistance zone can be found. Source: xStation5

Data released last week show that the German economy contracted in the second quarter of the year. With survey gauges like PMIs or ZEW at multi-year lows the risk of Europe’s biggest economy meeting the definition of recession (two consecutive quarters of contracting activity) has grown significantly. In turn, the German authorities decided to ensure markets they will not stand still once the recession hits. Olaf Scholz, the German Finance Minister, said that the country is ready and able to muster €50 billion for additional spending in case of a crisis. Nevertheless, neither Scholz nor Merkel in her last week’s speeches signalled a need for immediate action. Note that German government is facing increased pressures at home to abandon zero-deficit policy it has been pursuing as reduction of the debt-to-GDP ratio in recent years opened a way for more debt to be issued.

DAX members at the beginning of the European trading. Source: Bloomberg

Company News

German equities are catching a bid on Monday morning thanks to Finance Minister’s remarks on a possible stimulus. Lenders, including Deutsche Bank (DBK.DE) and Commerzbank (CBK.DE), as well as industrials like Thyssenkrupp (TKA.DE) are among the best performing stocks. Upbeat sentiment is strong enough to see almost every DAX member rising at the beginning of the session, even in spite of a range of downbeat analysts’ recommendations.

Analysts of the Goldman Sachs continue to be bearish about the automotive sector. The Bank  issued new recommendations for Continental (CON.DE) and Valeo (FR.FR) stocks. Recommendation for Continental was lowered from “buy” to “neutral” and the price target was cut from €142 to €118. Valeo was downgraded from “neutral” to “sell” and price target was lowered from €22 to €21. 

Apart from that, Banco Sabadell, the Spanish bank, downgraded Adidas (ADS.DE) from “buy” to “sell” and lowered price target to €234. On the other hand, Citi decided to slash rating for Lufthansa (LHA.DE) from “buy” to “neutral”.