US100 loses 1.1% as Dell shares plunge 13% 📉 Bitcoin rebound above $96k fuels Microstrategy 📈

• Wall Street opens the session in mixed sentiment; US100 loses 1% on a wave of declines in the semiconductor sector; Nvidia loses more than 3%, Dell shares retreat more than 13% after financial results; company warns that 'AI spending will not be linear'
• Bitcoin rebounds to $96k and lifts Microstrategy (MSTR.US) shares nearly 11% to $390 per share; Coinbase and Robinhood also gain
• Mixed data from the U.S. economy; Americans' incomes higher but consumption lower; unemployment claims low; Q3 GDP revision unchanged at 2.8% y/y

Stock market sentiment is fairly mixed at the opening of the US stock market, although it is hard to say that it is unequivocally negative. The technology sector is clearly weighing on the indexes today; the financial, health care industries are making up for it, although no company in the S&P 500 can boast spectacular growth today. The main attention today was garnered by Dell, whose shares are overvalued by nearly 13%, as, in the face of disappointing revenue guidance and declining sales in its AI server segment, investors fear that corporate spending on artificial intelligence will begin to slow, in anticipation of full production of Blackwell chips from Nvidia. Yields are trading down 4 bps today, and the dollar is retreating despite the rather hawkish tone of yesterday's Fed minutes, which put a question mark over a rate cut in December.

The semiconductor industry is weighing on U.S. indices today; CrowdStrike (CRWD.US) and the broader software sector are also losing ground after the results. We see that sentiment around AI and the technology infrastructure associated with it has weakened somewhat; Arista Networks shares are retreating. Source: xStation5

US100 (D1 interval)

Source: xStation5

Dell disappointed Wall Street

Technology equipment maker Dell (DELL.US) reported lower-than-forecast revenue in the third quarter, and the disappointment in this aspect overshadowed nearly 5% higher-than-expected earnings per share. In the server and networking segment, growth pointed to nearly 60% year-on-year, compared to a modest 4.2% increase in the memory segment, where the company did not experience the growth catalysts associated with the AI trend. Dell announced its forecast for the current quarter, estimating revenues of $24 billion to $25 billion. The forecast was below Wall Street's expectation of $25.57 billion. The company expressed optimism about sales growth related to artificial intelligence (AI), but this did not help the valuation of its shares. Significantly, revenue from AI servers fell 9% quarter-on-quarter.

• Adjusted earnings per share (EPS): $2.15 compared to $1.88 year-on-year, forecast: $2.05
• Revenue: $24.37 billion, up 9.5% year-on-year, forecast: $24.59 billion

Infrastructure Solutions Group (Infrastructure Solutions Group):

• Net revenue: $11.37 billion, up 34% year-on-year, forecast: $11.34 billion (Bloomberg consensus)
• Server and network revenue: $7.36 billion, up 58% year-on-year, forecast: $7.53 billion
• Storage revenue: $4.00 billion, up 4.2% year-on-year, forecast: $3.83 billion

The company indicated that it has a total order pipeline of close to $20 billion. Backlog of orders in execution in Q3 reached $8 billion, due to Blackwell delays from Nvidia. Dell's revenues in future quarters will depend on Blackwell chip shipments, and thus are subject to the risk of possible problems in their production (customers are delaying orders while waiting for the latest chips). On November 17, the frma officially delivered its first PowerEdge server, the so-called GB200, with AI Blackwell chips from Nvidia. The company expects Blackwell production to grow and is ready to ramp it up.

Nvidia (NVDA.US) and Dell (DELL.US) stocks

Nvidia shares are slipping below the EMA50 (orange line), which has provided an 'opportunity' for the stock to accumulate since the start of the bull market in Q4 2022. Presented results for Q3 (fiscal Q1 2025) turned out great, but forecasts for the current quarter assume the slowest sales growth since Q1 2023. 

Source: xStation5

DELL shares are defending at the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave initiated in the last quarter of 2022, just after the introduction of ChatGPT. 

Source: xStation5