Morning wrap (08.11.2023)

6:53 AM 8 November 2023
  • Wall Street closed yesterday's session higher, with the Nasdaq rising nearly 1% extending gains in U.S. stocks, which are trading on their longest upward streak since 2021. Big Tech stocks - mainly Amazon and Apple - gained strongly
  • Positive sentiment on Wall Street did not translate into the mood of the Asian session. In the absence of major macro releases, China's Hang Seng lost nearly 0.6%, Korea's KOSPI retreated nearly 1% - weakness was also shown by Japanese benchmarks where the Topix and Nikkei lost 1.16% and 0.33% respectively
  • Yesterday's hawkish tones in statements by Fed members Neel Kashkari, Michelle Bowman and Lorie Logan suggest that the bankers were trying to slightly 'modify' the tone of Powell's recent conference, which, although overall contained a mixed message, was received on Wall Street with a 'dovish' reception
  • Falling oil prices, which erases some of the 'geopolitical premium' in the absence of an escalation of the war in the Middle East cushioned to a large extent the 'hawkish' message from members of the Federal Reserve.favoring the bulls
  • Bowman believes further rate hikes will be needed although he will be watching incoming data closely and sees that financial conditions have tightened since September
  • Logan pointed out that inflation readings in the U.S. indicate that it will reach 3%, not 2% and the last reading turned out to be higher - the overall tone of the Dallas Fed chief's stance was that the economy has so far proved stubbornly and pro-inflationarily resilient
  • The strength of the economy in Q3 was also highlighted by the Fed's Waller in whose assessment 'prices will not return to pre-pandemic levels'
  • Kashkarki stressed that if inflation continues to fall - it will signal to the Fed that it has done enough but the strength of the economy puts the trend in question and policymakers are ready to raise rates higher if needed
  • Austan Goolsbee's message from the Chicago Fed was actually consistent with Powell's last speech - he will emphasize that the labor market is better balanced and the US economy is still on the road to a 'soft landing'
  • Israel reiterated a tough stance on a potential ceasefire, with President Netanyahu stressing that it is not possible as long as Hamas is holding hostages. At the same time, Israel warned Hezbollah against becoming more involved in the conflict and pointed out that so far 70 fighters from the Islamic organization have already been killed
  • Wells Frgo indicated that the probability of a recession is increasing but it is not yet an inevitable scenario
  • NATGAS futures are down slightly, with WTI and Brent crude oil contracts gaining in the range of 0.2% after yesterday's nearly 4% drop. The price for a barrel of WTI is around $77.3 today
  • Early in the session, USDIDX dollar index contracts are trading up 0.18%. EURUSD loses 0.11% and is trading around 1.068
  • Gold is trading below $1,970 per ounce, silver contracts are losing nearly 0.4% and palladium contracts are trading near 2.4% declines
  • The sentiments of the cryptocurrency market improved yesterday after Bitcoin soared to $35,500 from $34,700 in a flash, and the price of the largest cryptocurrency is currently hovering around $35,300
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