Fortinet shares plunged 22% due to delays in large deals!

5:43 PM 4 August 2023

Fortinet's (FTNT.US) shares declined by 22.50% in today's market session after the company published its financial results for the second quarter of 2023. Despite the shares plummeting, the financial results showed impressive growth across several areas. However, the market reaction is mostly related to deals being delayed, lowered full-year guidance and macroeconomic risks.

Quarterly Highlights:

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  • Total Revenue: $1.29 billion, up 26% YoY (from $1.03 billion)
    • Product Revenue: $472.6 million, up 18% YoY (from $400.7 million)
    • Service Revenue: $820.2 million, up 30% YoY (from $629.4 million)
  • Billings: $1.54 billion, up 18% YoY (from $1.30 billion)
  • Deferred Revenue: $5.13 billion, up 30% YoY (from $3.93 billion)
  • Operating Income: $348.1 million, up 36% YoY (from $255.4 million), margin of 26.9%
  • EPS: $0.38, up 58% YoY (from $0.24)
  • Cash Flow from Operations: $515.1 million, compared to $323.4 million in Q2 2022
  • Free Cash Flow: $438.3 million, compared to $283.5 million in Q2 2022

For Q3 2023, Fortinet Forecasts:

  • Revenue: $1.315 billion to $1.375 billion
  • Billings: $1.560 billion to $1.620 billion
  • EPS: $0.35 to $0.37

For FY 2023:

  • Revenue: $5.350 billion to $5.450 billion
  • Billings: $6.490 billion to $6.590 billion
  • EPS: $1.49 to $1.53

Management Commentary:

Ken Xie, CEO, expressed confidence in the company's positioning for long-term growth, emphasizing focus on Secure Networking, Consolidated Cybersecurity Fabric, Hybrid Cloud Security, and Operational Technology. However, the stock plunged due to several factors like:

  • Delayed Deals: according to the Chief Financial Officer, Keith Jensen, an "unusually large volume of deals" the company expected to close in June were pushed out to future quarters. This delay was attributed to macroeconomic uncertainty, impacting Fortinet's billings performance and leading to an elevated level of deals being delayed.

  • Lower Guidance: Fortinet's third-quarter guidance fell short of expectations. The company expects revenue of between $1.315 billion and $1.375 billion, lower than the $1.38 billion expected by analysts, and it also lowered its full-year guidance. The reduction in guidance likely signals to investors that the company might be facing challenges in its growth trajectory, which could have dampened investor confidence.

  • Concerns About the Core Business: Some analysts noted the impact on the company's core business, specifically citing concerns about the contracting contract duration and challenges in product revenues for the next several quarters.

  • Competitive Pressure and Architectural Shifts: Some analysts have raised questions about whether there might be incremental competitive pressure or architectural shifts away from hardware form factors that could affect Fortinet's business in the near to medium term.

Fortinet stock price chart, D1 interval, source xStation 5

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