Economic calendar: Will US GDP dent the dollar?

Summary:

• First reading of US GDP for the third quarter is the paramount point in the calendar today

• Final release of the University of Michigan index

• Draghi speaks in Brussels one day after the ECB meeting

1:30 pm BST - US GDP for Q3: The US economy expanded at a vigorous pace in the second quarter despite risks stemming from the simmering trade tensions with China. However, the third quarter is expected to have resulted in a slower pace of growth. Let us remind that the US marked a 4.1% annualized rate of growth in the three months through June. In the past quarter it is believed to have increased 3.3%. At the same time we will be offered the GDP deflator which is forecast to have slid to 2.1% from 3.2%. In turn, core PCE probably fell to 1.8% from 2%. It needs to be said that sound economic growth would be welcomed by Donald Trump who is seeking support ahead of the midterms as soon as the next month. In case of a miss two scenarios seem to be possible: Trump could heat up the talk about further tax cuts or he could blame the Federal Reserve for any disappointing GDP numbers.

3:00 pm BST - University of Michigan index (final): Given the fact that this will be the final print for October (99 points were reported earlier this month) its impact should not be substantial on the US dollar and stocks either. Instead more attention could be paid to inflation expectations measures as they have recently showed some signs of moderation.

Central bank speakers for today:

• 3:00 pm BST - ECB’s Draghi

• 3:15 pm BST - ECB’s Coeure