Economic calendar: Riksbank decision and crucial US data

Summary:

• Riksbank is expected to stay on hold
• US non-manufacturing ISM, ADP report
• DoE to release its weekly data on crude inventories

8:30 am BST - Riksbank rate decision: The Swedish central bank was expected to hike rates some time ago, however, things have evolved significantly since then and the direction of these changes has not been favourable for Sweden’s policymakers. As a result, the Scandinavian central bank is widely expected to ditch its idea to exit negative rates any time soon. Moreover, the SEK remains weak and despite this, it has yet to exert upward pressure on price growth there. Therefore, we doubt that the Riksbank would want the SEK to appreciate. That should put the SEK in a sharp contrast with its Norwegian counterpart (the latter seems to have a much brighter outlook).

8:30 am BST - Swedish industrial output for July

12:30 pm BST - Challenger report on planned layoffs for August

1:15 pm BST - ADP report for August: This will be the first clue when it comes to a jobs report due on Friday (the second one will come a bit later when non-manufacturing ISM comes out). The consensus seems to be quite cautious seeing 148k new jobs added last month. On the other hand, economic developments in the world’s largest economy were not favourable in August, thus there is a downside risk for the above-mentioned call. 

1:30 pm BST - Unit labour costs and non-farm labour productivity from the US for Q2: There will be final readings where expectations point to 2.4% and 2.2% QoQ respectively.

1:30 pm BST - Weekly jobless claims: The consensus points to 215k.

3:00 pm BST - Non-manufacturing ISM for August: The Bloomberg median estimate suggests the index may have increased to 54 from 53.7. However, after a gloomy reading concerning manufacturing ISM there is a downside risk before today’s reading. 

3:30 pm BST - DoE weekly crude inventories: The consensus points to a 2.6 million barrels decrease while gasoline inventories are forecast to have declined 1.5 million barrels. 

Central bankers’ speeches:

• 10:15 am BST - ECB’s Guindos

• 3:30 pm BST - BoE’s Tenreyro

• 4:45 pm BST - BoC’s Schembri