Economic calendar: Final US data ahead of FOMC decision

Summary

- Swedish economy expected to have grown by 1.9% YoY in Q2
- German inflation seen slowing slightly in July
- A pack of important US data ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision

8:30 am BST - Sweden, GDP report for Q2. The Swedish economy had quite a strong first quarter of the year and grew faster than expected. Survey gauges remained above the contraction threshold in the second quarter and “hard” data was not too bad either. Having said that, there is a high chance that the Swedish GDP will at least match forecasted 1.9% YoY.

1:00 pm BST - Germany, CPI inflation for July. Spanish price growth data published yesterday disappointed in terms of both the headline and core readings. In case the German inflation also disappoints euro may feel the pain and ECB may be even more encouraged to ease its policy. Today’s data will serve as a final check ahead of tomorrow’s reading for the whole euro area. Market consensus expects a deceleration from 1.6% YoY to 1.5% YoY.

1:30 pm BST - US, PCE inflation for June. Donald Trump pointed to low inflation numerous times when he was criticizing the actions of the Federal Reserve. He might have had a point as PCE inflation, Fed’s preferred measure, stayed below 2% goal in 2019 so far. With FOMC scheduled to deliver decision tomorrow, PCE inflation should be watched closely.

3:00 pm BST - US, Pending Home Sales for June and Conference Board for July. The US housing market data has been quite mixed as of late. However, as Fed is set to cut rates, the US housing market may see a rebound in the months to come. Today’s reading is expected to show 0.5% MoM increase. Apart from that, CB consumer confidence index for July will be released and it is expected to jump from 121.5 to 125 pts.

9:40 pm BST - API report on oil inventories. Last week saw another major drop in oil stockpiles. Nevertheless, crude prices failed to catch a bid and remained near levels observed for the past two weeks. A point to note is that discrepancy between API and DOE reports last week was only 126k. Having said that, today’s reading may be used as a kind of a hint ahead of tomorrow’s release.