Economic Calendar: All eyes on US CPI data, Bank Earnings Kick Off Q4 Season

Markets face a pivotal day as investors await key inflation readings from major economies, with U.S. CPI data taking center stage amid shifting rate cut expectations. Asian markets closed cautiously higher, while European futures point to a muted open as traders brace for a data-heavy session.

The economic calendar features inflation readings from the UK, France, and Spain before the crucial U.S. CPI report, which could influence the Federal Reserve's rate path for 2025. Forecasts suggest U.S. headline inflation may tick up to 2.9% from 2.7%, while core inflation is expected to hold steady at 3.3%. Several Fed officials, including Kashkari and Williams, are scheduled to speak later today, potentially offering fresh insights into monetary policy direction.

Adding to market focus, major U.S. banks including JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo kick off the fourth-quarter earnings season, providing an important gauge of economic conditions. This comes as the dollar steadies below two-year highs and Treasury yields pull back, while oil prices hover near four-month peaks on Russian sanctions impact.

Key Data Releases (GMT) 

07:00 - United Kingdom Inflation:

• CPI YoY - Forecast: 2.6%, Previous: 2.6%
• Core CPI YoY - Forecast: 3.4%, Previous: 3.5%
• RPI YoY - Forecast: 3.8%, Previous: 3.6%
• PPI Input YoY - Forecast: -1.3%, Previous: -1.9%
• PPI Output YoY - Forecast: 0.0%, Previous: -0.6%

07:45 - France Inflation (December):

• HICP YoY - Forecast: 1.8%, Previous: 1.7%
• CPI YoY - Forecast: 1.3%, Previous: 1.3%

08:00 - Spain Inflation (December):

• HICP YoY - Forecast: 2.8%, Previous: 2.4%
• Core CPI YoY - Forecast: 2.6%, Previous: 2.4%

10:00 - Eurozone Industrial Production (November):

• MoM - Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.0%
• YoY - Forecast: -1.9%, Previous: -1.2%

13:30 - United States Inflation (December):

• CPI YoY - Forecast: 2.9%, Previous: 2.7%
• Core CPI YoY - Forecast: 3.3%, Previous: 3.3%
• CPI MoM - Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: 0.3%

13:30 - Canada Economic Data (November):

• Manufacturing Sales MoM - Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: 2.1%
• Wholesale Sales MoM - Forecast: -0.6%, Previous: 1.0%

15:30 - US EIA Petroleum Status:

• Crude Inventories - Forecast: -3.500M, Previous: -0.959M
• Gasoline Stocks - Forecast: 2.670M, Previous: 6.330M
• Distillate Inventories - Forecast: -1.000M, Previous: 6.071M

19:00 - United States Federal Reserve Beige Book

Central Bank Speakers 

08:00 - ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos 

15:00 - Fed's Neel Kashkari speaks on economic outlook 

16:00 - Fed's John Williams discusses monetary policy

Quarterly Earnings 

Pre-market releases:

• JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
• Citigroup (C)
• Wells Fargo (WFC)
• BlackRock (BLK)
• Bank of New York Mellon (BK)
• Banking sector results will provide insights into lending trends, trading revenue, and impact of higher rates